The TAB has been quick to react to his latest form, making him a $2.50 favourite to win the Triple Crown again, but with tough competition from the next three qualifiers - Invercargill shearer Nathan Stratford, defending champion John Kirkpatrick, of Napier, and Darren Forde, the Southlander who won the event four times from 1999 to 2004.
They were all quoted at $5, with three-times winner Tony Coster, of Rakaia, at $6 and the rest at $25 or more.
Among them are fellow Mid-Canterbury shearers Gavin Rowland and Norm Harraway, who have been competing this season in the Last Stand tour, a testimonial to long-time shearing and judging identity John Hough, who is retiring this season.
The 12 qualifiers in order, with total qualifying points, are:
David Fagan (Te Kuiti) 55pts, 1; Nathan Stratford (Invercargill) 42, 2; John Kirkpatrick (Napier) 41, 3; Daren Forde (Winton) 38, 4; Axle Reid (Taihape) 31, 5; Aaron Haynes (Feilding) 30, 6; Tony Coster (Rakaia) 28, 7; Grant Smith (Rakaia) 22, 8; Norm Harraway (Rakaia) 16, 9; Tipene Te Whata (Tautoro) 15, 10; Gavin Rowland (Dunsandel) and Doug Smith (Ruawai) 14,11-equal.