KEY POINTS:
A first-term National Cabinet could have some surprises if the party manages to keep ahead in the polls and leads the next Government.
In the eyes of National Party leader John Key the first dozen faces in a future Cabinet pick themselves, but below that he has been
impressed with the ability of some newcomers.
It appears some of them could leapfrog their more experienced colleagues and find themselves either in the Cabinet or holding a portfolio outside should National take control after the next election.
Among those tipped for higher honours are Northcote MP and broadcasting spokesman Jonathan Coleman and list MP and Glen Eden-based community programmes spokeswoman Paula Bennett.
And it is by no means certain that National's more senior faces would hold the same portfolios as they now do in opposition. "Whether they're in their exact portfolios is something obviously we would decide further down the track," Mr Key said.
"There is a lot of competition and people are working pretty hard and will continue to work hard to demonstrate they've got a right to get there."
The make-up of a future National Cabinet depends on the hand that is dealt by voters and what that means in terms of doing deals with smaller parties.
Some posts - such as foreign affairs and police - could be discussed in negotiations and potentially land in the hands of people from other parties if the necessity arises.
Other posts are set in stone - such as deputy leader Bill English holding the finance portfolio.
Health spokesman Tony Ryall is keen to be health minister and has said he is enjoying the difference the portfolio offers compared with his previous law and order focus.
One of the factors that could play a role in decision-making around a future National Cabinet is the number of women, or lack of them, who occupy top positions within National.
If National was a rugby team, Judith Collins and Katherine Rich would currently be the only two women in the 1st XV.
That increases the chances of chief whip Anne Tolley making it into the Cabinet as well as industrial relations spokeswoman Kate Wilkinson and Ms Bennett.
Another factor at play is that the Maori Affairs portfolio is shared by Tau Henare and Georgina te Heuheu.
But neither of the former Cabinet ministers features in the top 20-ranked National MPs - one at least must surely be promoted.
Mr Key is keeping his cards close to his chest and is aware a lot of other factors could come into play between now and the post-election period.
He is pleased there is a balance of experience in his caucus which includes former ministers such as Lockwood Smith, Maurice Williamson and Mr English.
Parata puts Orewa behind in return
Former National Party candidate Hekia Parata, who withdrew from active membership after being devastated by Don Brash's Orewa speech on racial separatism, has returned to the fold and is being tipped as a likely candidate again next year.
Ms Parata stood unsuccessfully in Wellington Central in 2002 and missed out on a list place as well, even though she was placed at No 15, well ahead of some sitting MPs, in the wipe-out result.
She and her husband, former party Maori vice-president Wira Gardiner, had helped to recruit Maori to National in 2002 under the encouragement of the leader at the time, Bill English.
She is believed to have become active again under John Key's leadership and is tipped to return as a candidate in next year's election.
Triathlete Hamish Carter confirmed yesterday that he had been approached by National, and confirmed he was a party member, but said he had not taken it any further.
"We just had an initial discussion and it didn't eventuate."
- Audrey Young
What a National Cabinet might look like
John Key: Prime Minister, SIS. That would be enough for the first-time PM.
Bill English: Deputy Prime Minister, Finance. A certainty for Finance, at least.
Gerry Brownlee: Leader of the House, State Services, Ministerial Services. Needs something solid to get his teeth into, could also be given Energy.
Simon Power: Justice, Courts, Corrections. Could oversee structural changes in Justice/Corrections.
Nick Smith: Climate Change, Environment. Hard to see Climate Change being taken away from him.
Tony Ryall: Health. Has done well, and other contenders for Health are few and far between.
Judith Collins: Social Development. Appears likely to stay where she is.
Katherine Rich: Education. Another who may stay where she is.
Maurice Williamson: Communications, Police, Tourism. Operationally competent but questions over political judgment, especially after "Nazi" comment.
David Carter: Agriculture. A pretty clear choice.
Murray McCully: Foreign Affairs. Unless Winston is needed, in which case McCully would be likely to take Defence.
Lockwood Smith: Economic Development, Associate Finance, SOEs. Chunky enough stuff to keep the veteran busy.
Wayne Mapp: Labour, Immigration, Auckland issues. Visible on labour-related issues with his 90-day probation bill.
Chris Finlayson: Attorney-General, Treaty Negotiations. A clear pickfor both of these roles.
Tim Groser: Trade. Background as former NZ ambassador to World Trade Organisation and chairman of agricultural negotiations makes this an obvious choice.
Tau Henare: Maori Affairs. Promotion of either him or Georgina te Heuheu essential to bring Maori Affairs into the Cabinet.
Possible other faces in Cabinet to take remaining portfolios: Anne Tolley, Jonathan Coleman, Paula Bennett, Kate Wilkinson, Phil Heatley.
