KEY POINTS:
On the latest poll averages the seats stack up in National's favour but not as decisively as its lead over Labour suggests.
That lead averaged 14 per cent over the four most recently published polls. That would give National 62 seats and Labour 44.
Usually 62 seats would be a majority. But the Maori Party looks headed for five to seven of the Maori electorate seats against an entitlement on its share of the party vote (2.4 per cent) of only three seats. If it wins six Maori electorates, that would be three "overhangs", pushing the total number of MPs up to 123.
Jim Anderton is set to win his Wigram electorate. But so far his party vote in the polls is too small to warrant any seats. That would make Wigram an "overhang" seat, too.
And there would be 124 MPs. The majority would be 63, compared with the 61 needed up till now.
National's 62 would not be enough. But Act's and United Future's leaders look set to win their electorate seats and on current party vote polling Act would be entitled to two seats and United Future one. Adding them to National would total 65.
On the other side, adding Mr Anderton and the Greens (eight seats) to Labour's 42 would give 53 seats. Even adding the Maori Party's six would leave Labour short. But not by much.
Even leaving the Maori Party aside, Labour and friends are a lot closer to National and friends than Labour is to National. Small parties count.
And there was nearly four weeks to election day from the midpoint of the latest poll in the average. That gives time for Labour to claw votes, the small parties to lift theirs - and for New Zealand First to double its average to 5 per cent.
* The poll of polls is a rolling average of the four most recent polls at each date. Since five polls are included, one is necessarily missing from each point and sometimes a poll features twice. The five are Herald-DigiPoll, TV One-Colmar Brunton, TV3-TNS, Fairfax-Nielsen and Roy Morgan.
