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The flotilla of 100 icebergs drifting towards New Zealand could come within a few kilometres of the coast - but they might be too small to be seen.
Dr Paul Augustinus, Auckland University glacial geomorphology lecturer, said that given the right conditions, the icebergs, currently 260km from the coast and up to 2km long, could land against the sea floor just a few kilometres from the coast.
"Judging by the size of them, there's a good chance [they could be seen], but it depends on the currents. I don't think they will hit land. But given their size, and if the currents are right, they could ground on the continental shelf."
That's because the major icebergs are more than one kilometre deep.
But Mike Williams, physical oceanographer at the National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research, said the icebergs are melting rapidly and are likely to be too small to be seen when they get closer to New Zealand. He said there was about a 5 per cent chance of them making it. "Maybe something the size of a canoe would make it, but that's about it. I wouldn't bother staying up nights to see it."
He said they would most likely come within 50km of the coast.
The icebergs are believed to have broken off the Ross or Amery ice shelves in Antarctica. While they raise the spectre of global warming, Augustinus said, it's impossible to link the icebergs with climate change. "We've been monitoring these things for such a short time, it's impossible to see. To say this is unusual and related to global warming is just not possible. It's a fairly frequent occurrence; it's just unusual for such large bergs to get so far north."
Williams said the icebergs could present a major hazard to shipping in the area, and sea captains would have to be in constant contact with Maritime New Zealand. "If you got near one of those groups, it could be quite a hazard. Certainly, if the visibility is poor, they could be a real hazard."
And they're lucky anyone knew about them at all. The icebergs were overlooked by scientists, and it wasn't until a fishing boat reported them five days ago that anyone knew about them.
But where seafarers face a problem, tourist operators could have an opening.
"Someone should get in there and try to make a tourist attraction before it's too late. Do a helicopter flight over them. I'm sure some of them are thinking about it already," said Augustinus.
- HERALD ON SUNDAY
