By ALAN PERROTT, Education Reporter
Almost one in five English language schools are being regularly audited as the export education industry endures a slump in international student numbers.
The schools sit at the sharp edge of the dramatic falloff in students paying to be educated in this country, a trend that has already claimed the Modern Age Institute of Learning.
New Zealand's strong dollar has steadily eroded their competitive edge over Australian schools, but Modern Age's widely reported failure presented a very bad look to foreign students, who will not pay large amounts to schools they have no confidence in.
Education New Zealand chief executive Robert Stevens diplomatically described the year as "challenging" and expected the situation to get worse before it improved.
Patrick Ibbertson, head of language school association Appel, said the year was "grim" and got worse as it went on.
He expects better times ahead, but said some schools would struggle to be around to enjoy them.
Private schools have taken the hardest hit because, although secondary and tertiary institutions recruit students early each year for lengthy stays, they must recruit continuously to fill courses that may be only six weeks long.
As a result, they are the first to feel the impact of any fluctuation in student arrivals.
Seven of the 310 education providers dealing with international students were in enough difficulty to be deregistered by the Qualifications Authority this year.
A further 57 are subject to six-monthly NZQA audits, which track their financial health and compliance with the industry's code of practice.
Only 24 providers are considered secure enough to be audited on a three-yearly cycle.
State institutions have largely escaped such problems, but face predictions of a large fall in student numbers next year.
An Education NZ survey of 82 secondary schools predicted Chinese enrolments to drop by 64 per cent in the first term of next year. Only eight schools expected their Chinese enrolments to grow or remain steady.
Bali Haque, principal of Pakuranga College, said high-decile Auckland schools still hosted the bulk of international students, but their numbers dropped dramatically south of the Bombay Hills.
This is bad news for schools relying on these students to fund capital works projects and extra teachers.
Universities and polytechs report lower-than-expected enrolments for next year, a trend which could threaten the viability of several large apartment buildings being built in Auckland's central business district to cater for the student market.
Auckland City Council predicts almost 10,000 new inner-city apartments aimed at the student market will become available by 2006.
The growing student aversion to this country has been blamed on many factors, including the strong dollar, the Sars virus, fears of terrorism, anti-Asian politics, negative international publicity, Asian crime and deliberate intervention by the Chinese Government.
It has even been claimed that cost-conscious Asian students have faced strong competition for budget airfares from costumed fans arriving in New Zealand to visit the film locations for The Lord of the Rings and The Last Samurai.
These factors were only worsened by the collapse of the multi-campus Modern Age Institute of Learning in September, quickly followed by Carich Training's demise.
Mr Stevens said it was vital to prevent more business failures because they damaged the country's reputation and hampered efforts to market New Zealand's education system as high quality and safe.
"[It] is most important is to fix the problems that allowed these events to occur," he said.
"In the past 12 months we have been talking about not planning on continuous growth."
Mr Stevens said New Zealand providers should follow Australia's model. Forty per cent of its international students are taught overseas.
Under scrutiny
310 NZQA providers are audited on a variety of timescales
Every 3-6 months: 10
6 monthly: 57
1 year: 126
2 years: 93
3 years: 24
7 other providers were deregistered during 2003.
Herald Feature: Education
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