The report found better lambing rates than expected in the North Island, but worse rates in the South Island.
During lambing, wet weather and snowstorms in Southern South Island impacted lamb survival, but, so far, this seems to have been less than originally feared.
A lower lamb crop means that export lamb numbers are forecast to decrease by 6.5% across the whole season.
Australian lamb production is expected to be lower too, which tightens global supply and may lead to stronger prices in international markets.
Processing companies are closely monitoring livestock numbers and capacity, and the lamb crop report indicates potential significant shortfalls in supply in the South Island in the lead-up to Christmas.
Overall, lamb export processing is forecast to be down 11% in the three months to Christmas but there are significant differences between the islands.
In the South Island, export lamb processing for the first quarter of the season is expected to be down -22%, but up 2.4% in the North Island.
Adult sheep exports are also forecast to be 10.9% lower than last year across the entire season.
Beef + Lamb NZ chairwoman, Kate Acland, said, despite these challenges, there were signs of cautious optimism for the sheep and beef sector.
“The North Island has had excellent lambing conditions and lambs have been growing well.
“Farmers in the South Island did a fantastic job of minimising potential lamb losses in the face of prolonged cold, wet weather during lambing in Southern South Island and snowstorms in other regions.”
Early-season farmgate prices for sheepmeat have been higher than last spring and cattle prices remain strong.
This, coupled with the recent reductions in interest rates, has alleviated some financial pressure.
For more information, access the full B+LNZ 2024 Lamb Crop report.
