KEY POINTS:
Boy isn't this month just flying along quickly - we're already coming up to Labour Weekend. Suddenly that almost 5 month gap between this national holiday and our last one back in the first Monday of June doesn't seem that long ago, although I'm sure many are feeling that a holiday is well overdue!
I was looking back at the Weather Watch archives (which you can also do here) and saw that last year I was saying it would it be "spring like" (how surprising!) and the further north you went, the better it would be. Well, this year it's becoming clearer that, that advice would most definitely be wrong! This year's set up is the complete opposite, in fact, with a low moving down from the north and a likely high pressure system over the south.
The computer models that predict longer term (but with much less accuracy than shorter term - ie, 2- 3 days) can't seem to make their minds up on whether this will be a deep low or a less threatening low. One thing they do all agree on is the fact that it will develop and will bring a period of rain or showers to northern New Zealand - at this stage between Friday and Saturday.
The system may become big enough to prompt rain warnings for places like Northland, Coromandel and Bay of Plenty - and to a less extent, Nelson or Mt Taranaki - maybe even the Tararua Ranges.
Now I'm a silver lining kinda guy so the silver lining is this: the system will be clearing the North Island late on Saturday/Sunday morning. So perhaps Sunday and Monday will be relatively ok, especially for traditional holiday spots in the east like the Bay of Islands and Coromandel - just a little cooler with sou'westers developing.
One other silver lining is that the models shifted slightly this morning to show the low arriving perhaps on Friday instead of Saturday. The problem with long range models is that this afternoon they might swing back to Saturday, so you can't really react to each update - only once you see a pattern forming.
Over the South Island a small area of high pressure may block the worst of the system - with the West Coast looking warm and settled at this point in time.
But 7 days in forecasting is a very long time - especially in the middle of Spring! This is basically a 'heads up' for you - and for those wanting an extra early forecast for their first holiday weekend in many months. As the forecasts become more concrete we'll update the Weather Watch Centre - and on Friday we'll have a detailed and independent Labour Weekend weather and travel forecast.
This Week's Weather
Before I go, a quick update on this week - from Auckland northwards an okay start with a high still over us. For the rest of the North Island, everywhere south of about Waikato, that west or north west flow will develop as a weak front moves up the country. That front really won't affect regions north of Waikato and east of the main divide (Central Plateau, Tararua Ranges etc). By Wednesday or Thursday a change to nor'easterlies and cloud developing as that low drifts closer.
For the South Island it'll be a warm start to the week but by about Wednesday a cold southerly should move in. That southerly should then turn easterly by the week's end (thanks to the low in the North).
Philip Duncan
Pictured above: Walkers on Ocean Beach, Whangarei. Photo / supplied
For the latest weather news keep up to date with The Radio Network's new Weather Watch Centre or the NZ Herald weather section.
