KEY POINTS:
Labour's private talks with the Greens and New Zealand First are entering a key phase as it desperately tries to get its flagship emissions trading scheme passed into law before the election.
The scheme was reported back by a select committee yesterday with 1000 mainly technical amendments.
The
select committee recommended that the bill be passed but Labour is yet to secure the political support it needs to get the legislation through its final stages in the House.
Prime Minister Helen Clark twice avoided expressing confidence yesterday that she would be able to get the bill passed, preferring instead to say Labour was in "long and constructive" discussion with a number of parties.
"I don't want to go into any detail on it, not only because I don't think it's helpful to discussions but actually I'm not in that level of detail, immersed in it myself," she said.
It would be passed "if a majority can be mustered for it", she said.
There are several combinations Labour could hypothetically use to get the 61 votes it needs to get the legislation into law but some are clearly more politically palatable than others.
Firstly, Labour is likely to want to involve one of its support partners rather than plough ahead without any of them. Its keenness to get the emissions trading scheme passed before the election is so it has some runs on the board in the battle against climate change - something Helen Clark is now widely associated with after she pushed it to the front of her agenda in late 2006.
National has pulled its support for the legislation because it argues the details are flawed, and it is understood Labour is in intense discussions with New Zealand First and the Greens.
It is believed to have sounded out the Maori Party at some point and to have also talked with United Future.
The most likely combination of votes now appears to be the Greens and New Zealand First, but those parties are seeking different things and it will be hard to get a deal that satisfies both.
New Zealand First's concerns extend far wider than just the impact of the scheme on power prices - it is also worried about effects on the fishing and shipping industries, it isn't sure about Labour's planned ban on new thermal power generation, and it wants to look carefully at the impact on major employers such as a steel mill.
New Zealand First is crucial to Labour's chances of success, but being in that situation has its drawbacks.
Leader Winston Peters is looking to project a stable image and may not want to be seen to bring down the scheme, but his party is also acutely aware that the scheme may prove to be unpopular.
The Greens, meanwhile, have given Labour a rundown of what they want in the scheme, which includes some movement on the introduction of agriculture. Co-leader Jeanette Fitzsimons said the Greens would vote against the bill unless it improved at the committee stage in coming weeks in the House.
"It's not a question of whether something is better than nothing," she said. "This sets up a huge, highly complex and very expensive edifice which is only worth having if it's going to really reduce greenhouse emissions in a fair way. If it's not going to do that we would actually be better off without it."
Ms Fitzsimons said she had considered it would be useful for her to talk with New Zealand First MP Doug Woolerton, but a meeting was cancelled.
The Maori Party has not yet decided on a position.
It is likely that pressure will be exerted by New Zealand First on National in coming weeks in an effort to get the party involved in talks.
