Labour surges ahead in poll

EXCLUSIVE - Labour's fortunes have dramatically reversed in the latest Herald-DigiPoll survey and it now leads National by 6.4 percentage points.

In the same poll last month, Labour trailed National by 3.9 points.

National overtook Labour after the May Budget, but with just over seven weeks to go until the election Labour is back to where it has been for most of the three-year term, in front.

Labour has risen 7.7 points to 43.9 per cent of decided voters and National has fallen 2.6 points to 37.5.

The popularity of Helen Clark as preferred Prime Minister has risen by five points, to 53.8 per cent. National leader Don Brash has also had a rise, by 3.3 points, to 28.3 per cent.

The biggest loser in today's poll is Winston Peters, who has dropped eight points as preferred Prime Minister to 10.3, and his New Zealand First Party, which has fallen 4.7 points to 7.1.

A breakdown of the results suggests there is a substantial soft vote in the electorate and that National has taken a slice of elderly voters' support from New Zealand First.

If the poll was translated to seats in the House, neither the Greens nor Act would be in the next Parliament. And Government-forming options could be complicated.

Labour would need the support of either New Zealand First or the Maori Party and National would need both New Zealand First and the Maori Party.

Mr Peters yesterday continued to distance NZ First from the prospect of being "king-maker" or "queen-maker" for National or Labour.

DigiPoll director Dr Gabriel Dekel said the trend in Labour's favour was apparent when he began polling on Wednesday last week, well before Labour released its $300 million student loans policy on Tuesday this week. Polling finished the next day.

Although the policy itself could have had little impact on the poll, Dr Dekel pointed to big shifts in relevant demographic groups.

Last month in the student-age group 18 to 24, National was supported by 40.5 per cent and Labour by 37.8 per cent; this month National has the support of just 28.4 per cent of that group and Labour 50 per cent.

A shift has also occurred in the parents-of-students 40 to 54 age group: last month National had much more support among them than Labour did at 44.2 to 34.3; today's poll shows Labour ahead in that group with 40.9 support and National 39.8.

On the other hand, Dr Dekel points out that although National has lost in that area, it has picked up a lot of support among the over-65s.

Last month National was supported by 38.3 of that age group and New Zealand First 19.5 per cent; today's poll shows National supported by 54.5 per cent of elderly voters, and New Zealand First by just 9.9 per cent.

Dr Dekel believed Labour's increase overall was linked to fear and anxiety over the London bombings coupled with its attacks on National last week over its funding and foreign policy.

The poll also shows a lift in those who believe the Government is headed in the right direction - 49.1 per cent compared with 39.5 per cent last month.

Prime Minister Helen Clark said last night through a spokeswoman that the result was consistent with feedback Labour MPs had received during the four-week recess.

National believes the race is more even. "Polling is very volatile and we are clearly in a neck-and-neck race which could fluctuate all the way to the election," Dr Brash said last night through a spokesman.

The poll of 1000 people was taken between July 20 and 27 and has a margin of error of 3.1 per cent.

A poll published by the National Business Review today has Labour ahead by six points, compared with its poll a month ago when National was ahead by four points.

The NBR poll has Labour on 41 per cent and National on 35 per cent.

A TV3 poll last night showed the two main parties with an equal rating of 39 per cent.