Labour regaining momentum in latest poll, as National's Luxon surge stalls

Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern enjoys strong polling, four years into Government. Photo / Lewis Gardner

Labour has found some momentum in the latest Taxpayers' Union-Curia poll.

Labour has risen 1.7 points to 41.2 per cent, widening a lead against the National Party, which sits on 33 per cent, up 0.4 points.

Act is on 11.5 per cent, up 0.9 points.

The Greens fell 0.2 points to 10.7.

Te Paati Māori fell 2.5 points to 0.5.

National had enjoyed a polling surge since its low point in September, rising from the low 20s into the 30s. This supercharged as Chris Luxon took over at the end of the year.

The party's rise seems to have come at the expense of both Labour and Act; Labour dropped from the high to low 40s, and Act from the high to low teens.

On those numbers, Labour and the Greens could form a Government with 51 and 13 seats respectively, giving them 64.

National and Act would muster 41 and 14 seats respectively, giving the parties 55 seats.

Te Paati Māori would need to win an electorate to return to Parliament, and even then it would lose one seat.

Jacinda Ardern and Chris Luxon are both down in the Preferred Prime Minister stakes. Ardern polled 37.5 per cent, down 1.6 points, while Luxon fell 2 points to 18.4.

The only other leader to register strong polling was David Seymour on 8.4 per cent, up 2.8 points.

Former National leader Judith Collins rose 4 points to 3.8 per cent, while Simon Bridges rose 0.9 points to 1 per cent.

The poll was conducted from Monday, January 10 to Monday, January 17, with 1000 eligible voters. The maximum sampling error (for a result of 50 per cent) is +/- 3.1 per cent, at the 95 per cent confidence level.