By RUTH BERRY, political reporter
Labour MP Nanaia Mahuta will break ranks and cross the floor on the foreshore legislation, set to be introduced next week.
Associate Maori Affairs Minister Tariana Turia is also tipped to vote against the legislation, although she will make a final decision after meeting constituents at hui over the weekend.
The labour caucus gave the two MPs until next week to make a final decision.
If both MPs cross the floor the Government will need the votes of New Zealand First to pass the bill.
If only Ms Mahuta crosses the floor, and Mrs Turia abstains, the eight votes of United Future alone will be enough to pass the legislation.
Though neither party has yet given firm guarantees, the leaders of both parties have signalled their support is likely.
NZ First leader Winston Peters said yesterday: "We believe there's room for resolution. We have had positive talks with them [the Government]".
The Government is planning to introduce the legislation next week, probably on Wednesday.
On Thursday, Parliament goes into a three-week recess.
Ms Mahuta said she would disclose her voting plans as soon as she saw the final shape of the bill, which she had yet to see.
But the Herald understands she plans to cross the floor.
Ms Mahuta's criticisms yesterday appear to confirm her opposition.
She said it would be irresponsible of her not to be looking at the concerns of her Tainui electorate, which had opposed the policy.
"Small gains" had been made, such as the Government's plan to keep the High Court avenue open.
But though this could lead to the recognition of aboriginal title, what that meant was unclear and would ultimately only lead to further uncertainty for Maori, she said.
A more appropriate path would have seen the Government prepared to grant the sort of titles given to Tuwharetoa over Lake Taupo and Te Arawa over the Rotorua Lakes, which explicitly recognised ownership.
Maori would see the policy as an extinguishment of their right to "explore in full the extent of their property" she said.
Of the other Maori electorate MPs, Maori Affairs Minister Parekura Horomia, Tamaki Makaurau MP John Tamihere, Te Tai Tokerau MP Dover Samuels and Te Tai Tonga MP Mahara Okeroa have confirmed they will support the bill.
Waiariki MP Mita Ririnui has refused to return Herald calls, but is expected to support it, as are the party's other MPs.
Mr Samuels said yesterday that he had the "ultimate respect" for the two Maori women MPs considering opposing the bill, but he had thought hard about his vote and believed he had made the right decision.
The Government had compromised because of the behind-the-scenes battle waged by the Maori caucus.
He believed the plan to allow cases to be heard in the High Court created an independent avenue to allow Maori to test the Government's policy.
Herald Feature: Maori issues
Related information and links
Labour MP set to keep faith with Tainui and cross the floor
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