Labour frets over poor reception of Budget

Prime Minister Helen Clark arrives back from overseas tomorrow morning to worries about how to stem Labour's bleeding support.

She will also be turning her mind to an election date - which would be announced in the next two weeks in the unlikely event of it being on the earliest date, July 30.

The Budget's poor reception is vexing Labour strategists and that date is receding as a possibility.

The party needs time to decide how to address the "what-about-me" syndrome that appears to have left many voters feeling insulted by meagre and far-off personal tax breaks in the Budget.

Unlike the last election, this time the party plans to announce new policy rather than simply rely on its record.

Sources said yesterday that it was unlikely there would a change to tax policy.

But Helen Clark may have other ideas. She has been swift to react pragmatically to areas of voter risk, as when she ditched her Closing the Gaps flagship policy in 2000, then last year when Labour reviewed previously vaunted policies of positive discrimination to help Maori and Islanders.

There have been suggestions that Labour favoured July 30 because it would avoid potentially bad publicity from the speeding motorcade court case set down for August 1 in Timaru District Court.

But Helen Clark described as "utter drivel" a report last week that July 30 was the date.

In her eight-day absence to visit China and Japan, post-Budget polls have shown National and New Zealand First rising at the expense of her own party.

Labour dropped four points in the National Business Review-Phillips Fox poll, National was up four and ahead of Labour and New Zealand First had enough support to form a government with either National or Labour.

The poll has more significance for Labour because it was conducted by UMR Insight, the polling company it trusts the most and which it uses privately.

Last week's Herald-DigiPoll survey also showed National closing the gap.

Speaking in Nagoya yesterday, Helen Clark said the country had done well under Labour and she did not believe people were in the mood for a radical change.

The Government had faced difficult issues: "You see one off and another comes along," she told NZPA, "but we will continue to campaign very optimistically".

She also suggested that New Zealand First leader Winston Peters might have misjudged his timing: "He's made his run early this time, and if you make your run early you can peak early and come off it."

Far from being buoyed by the results, Mr Peters was unhappy yesterday that coverage of the poll pitched him as someone who wielded power over who held the Treasury benches, rather than as a contender.

He also said it was "unfortunate" that the media coupled New Zealand First with National.

"Labour and National are so identical [people] are coming to realise that these two old parties have been the cause of our demise."

Best bets for poll date

July 30: First date on which Labour can say it has gone full term. Occurs before the speeding motorcade trial on August 1. Five police officers and a civilian have been charged with offences related to the Prime Minister's speeding motorcade through South Canterbury last year, which the Opposition will make a meal of. Third-best bet.
August 6: Unlikely: All Blacks vs South Africa, Cape Town.
August 13: Unlikely: All Blacks vs Australia, Sydney.
August 20: This date could make the Opposition run out of steam before the campaign begins. A four-week campaign would be preceded by an already scheduled four-week recess in June and July. Parliament is the Opposition's oxygen; deprived of it for so long, it could hit the ground limping. Being in the midst of the tri-nations series could mean a subliminal advantage to the incumbents - us vs them. Best bet.
August 27: Ruled out: All Blacks vs South Africa, Dunedin.
September 3: Ruled out: All Blacks vs Australia, Auckland.
September 10: Possible, but if they have waited this long, why not one more week.
September 17: As far away as possible from the motorcade case. Gives Labour the longest time possible to address resentment over tax. Avoids any sense of an early election. Symbolism of a spring election could be used to advantage. Second-best bet.
September 24: Unlikely: school holidays begin.