KEY POINTS:
Labour has regained ground against National in the latest Herald-DigiPoll survey, but National still could rule alone if its support translates into votes at next year's election.
The poll, taken this month, finds National with 48.2 per cent support and Labour with 40.1 per cent - narrowing the gap between the parties to eight points, less than half the 17-point lead that National recorded in last month's survey.
A spokesman for Prime Minister Helen Clark said she was "encouraged" by the boost to Labour's support, which has climbed 6.5 points from 33.6 per cent. National has slipped 2.7 points from 50.9 per cent.
If the percentages are translated into seats in Parliament, National would still have enough to govern without need of coalition partners, gaining 63 MPs in a House of 123.
Labour's gains this month come at the expense of a potential supporting party - the Greens, who have dropped below the vital 5 per cent threshold for the first time in Herald-DigiPoll surveys since before the 2005 election.
Yesterday, co-leader Jeanette Fitzsimons said her party had polled fairly consistently at 6 to 8 per cent since the last election and she was not worried by one low poll.
"It's not good news but I'm quite philosophical about it. Statistically, it's not significant to get one low poll. If we had a whole run of them the way Labour has, I would start to get worried."
The latest poll also shows Helen Clark regaining her roost as preferred Prime Minister after National leader John Key pipped her out last month for the first time in eight years.
Helen Clark was preferred as Prime Minister by 45.8 per cent of respondents (up 3.7 points from last month), while Mr Key's rating slipped to 42.2 per cent (down 3.3).
Helen Clark's spokesman said the Government had dealt with some "difficult issues", including the death of Folole Muliaga after Mercury Energy turned off the power that ran her oxygen machine, interest rate increases by the Reserve Bank and corruption charges against former Labour MP Taito Phillip Field.
The poll of 833 respondents was taken between June 4 and 22 and has a margin of error of 3.4 per cent. The results are of decided voters only.
The boost to Labour's support could be a spin-off from the Budget announcement of the new KiwiSaver scheme for which publicity kicked off in earnest at the end of last month.
Mr Key said he was pleased with the overall trend over a series of polls. He would not speculate on the reasons for Labour's boost.
"There will be a lot of polls between now and the election. I'm pleased with the way we are tracking but now we have to work hard to earn the right to govern the country."
The Green Party slip follows strong publicity over MP Sue Bradford's anti-smacking law change and the party's annual Queen's Birthday weekend conference.
Ms Fitzsimons doubted the Green Party's support would be as low on election day next year.
The polling period included Reserve Bank Governor Alan Bollard's increase of interest rates to 8 per cent on June 7 and the Reserve Bank's intervention in money markets, selling off currency in a bid to drive the dollar down against the American dollar.
Other issues to dominate the news included Fiji's expulsion of New Zealand High Commissioner Michael Green, a scathing Ombudsman's report on the Corrections Department's administration of prisoner transport, Helen Clark's trade mission to Australia, changes to NCEA and a heating up of the debate on Labour's policy for 20 free hours of early childhood education.
Party results:
National - 48.2 per cent (down 2.7 points)
Labour - 40.1 per cent (up 6.5)
Green - 4 per cent (down 2.1)
NZ First - 3 per cent (down 0.2)
Maori Party - 2.4 per cent (up 0.7)
Destiny - 1 per cent (down 1.5)
Act - 0.6 per cent (no change)
United Future - 0.3 per cent (down 0.5)
Progressives - 0.3 per cent (down 0.1)
