When the Canterbury area was devastated by the massive earthquakes of 2010 and 2011, we knew there would be a significant mental health impact. At first the impact was obvious: people were stressed, dealing with grief, loss and dislocation.
Help was dispatched, and a crisis response mobilised. However those of us who had worked with trauma and anxiety for many years knew we were not even at the beginning of the emotional fallout, and predicted that the real spike would be as late as three years later. As life returned to normal and people moved out of crisis mode only then would anxiety really peak.
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In fact it lasted even longer than many predicted, as children born and raised through the earthquakes and ongoing after shocks grew up in an atmosphere of anxiety and tension. These young people carried that anxiety with them as they moved into the world, and many still bear the psychological scars.
There is much we can take from the Canterbury experience that will serve us well as we turn our thoughts towards what post-Covid 19 lockdown life looks like, but there are also many unknowns.