KEY POINTS:
It was a good day for the Halafuka family of Mt Roskill when they drove out of an Auckland car yard in a newly-purchased 1997 Audi A3 hatchback.
Jasmine, her husband Sione and three year-old James were happy with their smart family car, bought for $8990.
"Definitely," beamed Jasmine. "I'm happy with it. It's a good price."
Car City owner Stevo Vulinovich was happy too. But things could be about to get harder for Vulinovich - and buyers like the Halafukas.
A growing body of opinion suggests that proposals for new vehicle emission standards, likely to go before Cabinet tomorrow, could add up to $5000 to the price of imported used cars. At $14,000 would the Audi still be such a good buy?
"No," said Jasmine. "It wouldn't be worth it. We would be struggling to afford it, especially when we have just bought our own home."
No one knows exactly what will happen if new emission standards are introduced on January 1. The aim, of course, is not to raise car prices but to improve the quality of New Zealand's fleet of vehicles - which some experts claim is one of the most polluting in the developed world.
Under the new legislation, imported used vehicles - 95 per cent of which come from Japan - will have to conform to emission standards imposed on vehicles in Japan in the year 2000. Vehicles older than that will not be registered for use on New Zealand roads. However, the Government has pulled up short of introducing advanced emission tests for existing New Zealand cars.
Critics claim the move will drive up the cost of used cars - for the simple reason that newer cars are more expensive. They also believe many people will respond by hanging on to their old cars till the death - ironically, worsening emissions.
Keeping older vehicles on the road longer will also cause car owners extra expense. A minor check for tuning, inspection of filters, drive belts and fluids can cost around $200. A more serious annual check, which can entail replacing oil and air filters and fluids and checking things like electronic ignition systems, would be more expensive - around $300, depending on how many components need replacing, according to the Motor Trade Association. That does not cover the cost of more expensive parts which need replacing or repairing as vehicles age.
The Idependent Motor Vehicle Dealers' Association is leading the charge against the proposals with a vitriolic campaign aimed at Associate Transport Minister Judith Tizard and Prime Minister Helen Clark. Half page ads in last week's newspapers depicted Tizard and Clark driving a clapped-out, smoking jalopy under the headline "Labour's Crazy Car Policy".
"From next year..." the ad claims, "... your average family car will cost $5000 more. Labour says it wants to protect the environment, but newer cars will be more expensive, so people will be forced to keep driving old clunkers for longer. It's crazy for your family budget. And it's even crazier for the environment."
The Motor Trade Association has been more moderate in its opposition, but largely agrees with the concerns raised. "Affordability is the key," said communications manager Andy Cuming. "If nobody can afford to buy cars it creates quite a problem."
Cuming said the proposals "failed to recognise the sheer scale of vehicles in New Zealand which needed to be progressively updated.
"We've been bringing in 100,000 used import cars every year for the past 20 years."
He said the expected $5000 increase in car prices was correct. For example, a 1998 Toyota Estima valued at $9000 would no longer be allowed into the country. The oldest comparable vehicle would be a 2000 model, which would cost around $14,000.
"Our average vehicle age is 12 years," said Cuming. "New Zealand consumers will not be able to upgrade cars just from those coming into the country. That's where the shortage will hit - and where the price for the consumer will tend to go up.
"Anybody with common sense agrees with the pursuit of a low level of emissions. The trick is to get the balance right. A smooth flow of higher technology vehicles enables progressive replacement to be achieved - but fundamental to this is continuing affordability. People must be able to afford to update.
"Society is telling people their old cars aren't worth much, they're dirty and shouldn't be on the street, so people say 'OK, I will drive it till it stops.' The average New Zealand driver's attitude to car ownership responsibilities is lower than it was years ago."
For Joe Public - and the Halafuka family - the arguments around emissions generate more smoke than fire. The bottom line for them is the predicted cost increase.
Hamish Wilson, senior technical writer for Consumer magazine, says they have a valid fear. "You can't absolutely guarantee prices will go up, but it's a distinct possibility. If you are forced to buy cars five years newer, $5000 might not be unrealistic."
Wilson said he himself drove an "old smoker" - a 1986 Toyota Corona. He said it was "human nature" for people to hold onto their cheap cars for as long as possible, if they were reliable.
"It could have an impact on low-income groups. We support moves to clean up the fleet but the Government hasn't got the formula quite right. The Government should be doing its best to minimise obstacles. They're going from no rules whatsoever to a situation where the rules are going to discourage people from upgrading to cleaner cars."
According to the Ministry of Transport, New Zealand has the second highest number of vehicles per capita in the world - behind only the United States. There are 3.1 million registered vehicles in this country and a supply of relatively cheap used cars has been pretty much taken for granted over the past two decades.
Amongst the used car dealerships of Great North Rd, where people like Jasmine Halafuka shop for affordable vehicles, salesmen speak of a "sweet spot" - a price range between $9000-$12,000.
One told the Herald on Sunday cars built after 2000 would most likely fall into the $14,000-$19,000 bracket. "That's where it will hit most. People can't afford that. They will just run their cars to the death."
Auckland finance broker Andrew Harris often deals with second-hand car buyers like Jasmine Halafuka. He says having to trade up to a post-2000 vehicle will mean people forking out $140 a week rather than $80.
"You can't take $60 a week out of somebody's budget. It's like buying two cars."
He predicted there would be more repossessions as people on low incomes struggled to buy more expensive cars, describing the introduction of the emission standards as a "major cock up. This [emission standards] should have been done at the beginning."
Judith Tizard dismissed the criticism over the emission standards, saying it represented the views of a "vehement fringe".
"It's a political campaign. This is a sign they [the IMVDA] are in trouble... they are having trouble selling some of their rubbish. The IMVDA is supporting carrying on importing smokey old clunkers and transferring the cost of testing them onto New Zealand owners."
But she admitted "one outcome" could be a rise in the cost of vehicles, although she did not accept this would disadvantage buyers.
"There is a glut of cars. For people for whom the cost is a major issue, they tend not to buy new or used cars off the boat.
"People have more choices about vehicles on the market than ever in history."
Tizard defended the Government's record on improving fuel standards, introducing visible exhaust checks and now tougher emission standards. Asked why no emissions testing regime was being introduced for the existing fleet, Tizard said it had been looked at and the cost was prohibitive. "The only way to improve the New Zealand fleet is to import better vehicles."
So far, the proposals appear to have made the Government more enemies than friends. One, albeit qualified, supporter is Green Party Associate Transport spokesperson, Sue Kedgley.
"I hope the Government will not bow to lobbying by the IMVDA over the imminent vehicle exhaust emissions rule," she said. "That would see us fall even further behind with the task of cleaning up our fleet and lowering our total emissions."
But Kedgley could not resist a jibe at the Government's record. "It is not credible for the Prime Minister to claim that New Zealand is one of the most sustainable nations on earth, and committed to carbon neutrality, when we have such a dirty car fleet."
Despite the fuming debate, all sides seem to agree on the need to reduce vehicle emissions, which the government claims kill around 400 people each year.
New Zealand's clean and green image is on the line when experts point out that hundreds of thousands of vehicles plying our roads would be banned in Europe and the United States and describe the visible smoke test during warrant of fitness inspections as "laughable".
Whatever the Government decides to do, it will be controversial. The price of clean air could be a high one and will, more than likely, be paid by the consumer.
