Killer flu strain being ignored, scientists warn

World leaders are ignoring the threat of an influenza pandemic that could infect a billion people and reach New Zealand within hours of an outbreak, scientists warn.

International experts have outlined a disastrous scenario if the threat from the virulent H5N1 strain of Asian bird flu is not taken seriously, it was reported yesterday.

Global health officials fear it may mutate into a lethal strain that could rival the 1918 Spanish flu pandemic, which killed between 20 million and 40 million people.

In commentaries published in the United States science journal Nature, some of the world's top flu authorities said that only a meticulously planned global response stood a chance of averting catastrophe.

They called for a permanent international taskforce to prepare for a pandemic, in place of country-by-country arrangements.

Urgent action was needed to develop ways of designing and manufacturing vaccines against the virus - a process that now takes six months - and to agree on international guidelines for eradicating potentially dangerous strains in poultry and wildlife, the experts said.

Christchurch virologist Lance Jennings, who recently visited Vietnam for research with the World Health Organisation (WHO), said the flu was beginning to adapt to humans.

If the virus started to pass from person to person, it could hit New Zealand in a matter of hours, thanks to air travel.

"The dilemma WHO has is there is no clear indication of human-to-human transmission occurring yet," he said. "But there is clear evidence that the epidemiology of the virus has changed in Vietnam."

New Zealand was well-prepared for a flu outbreak and had ordered 800,000 doses of the Roche anti-flu drug Tamiflu (oseltamivir), which could cut the severity of the flu and reduce the likelihood of it being passed to others, said Dr Jennings.

New Zealand's geographic isolation could act as a natural barrier to an outbreak if tight border controls were put in place.

Albert Osterhaus, of the Erasmus Medical Centre in Rotterdam, wants a taskforce of experts in human and animal medicine, virology, epidemiology, pathology, ecology and agriculture.

Teams would be sent to investigate outbreaks, to assess pandemic potential and organise containment.

Chinese news agencies reported on Thursday that scientists had developed vaccines that blocked the spread of the deadly H5N1 strain among birds and mammals.

- NZPA