KEY POINTS:
Any hint of smugness or complacency within the National Party will be knocked on the head by leader John Key this weekend as he warns that Labour will fight bitterly - and do almost anything - to stay in power.
National is registering poll ratings around 50 per cent, which could let it govern alone after next year's election, so some of the party faithful may be tempted to engage in backslapping at this weekend's annual conference in Auckland.
But Mr Key will deliver a strong message in his opening remarks this morning that polls can turn around and National has not yet won anything.
He will judge the success of the conference by looking at whether delegates go back to their regions with a clear taste of what will be required over the next 14 to 15 months.
"These are not people who want to leave office in a hurry," Mr Key said of Labour.
"We have to understand just how hard a slog it's going to be for 14 months, day in and day out.
"We're up against a determined group of individuals."
The conference will be Mr Key's first as leader and the traditional showpiece is his speech tomorrow morning.
He is set to venture into an area he hasn't previously talked about but the topic is being kept under wraps.
Whatever it might be, little is expected in the way of new policy at the conference - something bound to be attacked by Labour, which has repeatedly suggested Mr Key is more about style than substance.
Parallels have been drawn between Mr Key and British Conservative leader David Cameron, another young face who enjoyed early popularity after taking over his party leadership.
The two knew each other before Mr Cameron became leader. But the Conservative leader's star is fading and he has come under attack from within his own party in recent weeks.
In New Zealand, Labour has been taking some comfort from thatand views it as evidence of whatwill eventually happen to Mr Key'sso-called honeymoon.
Mr Key said he had noticed what was happening to Mr Cameron, but viewed him as being in a very different position.
"He is actually having to completely rebrand and rebuild the political appeal, or the public appeal of the Tories."
How it's shaping up
Mood
The mood of National Party conference-goers is likely to be upbeat despite warnings against complacency. Mr Key may have slipped up this week over his party's position on the controversial transtasman therapeutics regulator, but it is unlikely to overshadow his first conference as leader.
Attacks
National will use the conference to try to land several blows on Labour, but the attacks will go on long after tomorrow's closing speeches. Areas that National appears set to target include Finance Minister Michael Cullen's economic management and its effect on an average New Zealander's mortgage rate and income.
National will also target any weak Labour ministers, and on this count Mark Burton looks like a sitting duck as he fronts the controversial clampdown on election financing and advertising rules. National will try to exploit the uncertainty that its rival's rejuvenation process is causing.
Weaknesses
National remains vulnerable to attacks from Labour on several fronts as long as it continues to hold off announcing policy. While Labour can't attack the non-existent policy, it can try to plant frightening ideas in voters' minds of what that policy might be. Privatisation and cuts to government spending are likely to be attack platforms for Labour. What will be given up in return for a tax cut will also be questioned.
National is in an interesting position when it comes to some of the older faces in its ranks. While Key has softened the party's image, Labour may seek to negatively highlight some of the faces that will come along with him - the likes of Tony Ryall, Nick Smith, Maurice Williamson, Lockwood Smith and Judith Collins. Labour will suggest that these are the people really running the National Party. Experience beyond the big names at the top of the party list is also a bit light.
Unpredictables
The economy is shaping up as having a potentially large effect on the next election as higher interest rates really bite. Economic conditions could limit the scope of what National can offer without being accused of being irresponsible. National under Key is a more disciplined caucus unit, having been brought together by the leadership team of him and Bill English. That reduces the chance of a negative surprise coming from within National's own ranks.
Labour could also spring a policy surprise in the election campaign that kneecaps National in the way that interest-free student loans did in 2005.
