Keep the barbecue out, it's going to stay warm

A series of high pressure systems would bring fine spells to the north and east of the North Island. Photo / Doug Sherring

Autumn is set to bring warm, dry weather for the north of the country - with Aucklanders enjoying an Indian summer.

WeatherWatch analyst Phil Duncan said a series of high pressure systems would bring fine spells to the north and east of the North Island.

That pattern would hold until the end of March, but stretch "well into April".

Duncan said Southland and the West Coast would have the coldest autumn, while Bay of Plenty and Northland would be driest. He expected the first snow in the lower South Island soon.

"Probably within the next four to six weeks.

"If we keep seeing highs in the north bringing down warmer westerlies over central New Zealand we could see some big snow falls on the lower North Island ranges this autumn."

The National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research (NIWA) predicts near or below average temperatures across the country and agrees the east will be warmer.

The institute said the El Nino weather pattern was likely to weaken by the end of autumn, indicating near-normal rainfall and temperatures in most places.

Rainfall was likely to be normal in the North Island and north of the South Island, normal or above normal in the western South Island and in Canterbury and Otago.

Dry soil conditions were likely to continue in the north of the North Island and east of the South Island.

Duncan said a fine autumn for Auckland would extend a good summer.

"December started off hot, and despite a slight cooling around early January, the rest of summer has been fantastic with excellent beach weather.

"Humidity has been quite high lately but again not to levels like last year. So apart from a handful of restless nights it hasn't been too severe."

NIWA said there had been many days in the North Island with temperatures in the late 20s and early 30s but it was different in the south.

"Canterbury overall had a miserable summer with a lot of cloud, cold easterlies and highs only in the teens. But recently a change in wind directions has meant the South Island's east coast has been much hotter, with highs in the mid 30s."