KEY POINTS:
June 1 is an important date in the weather calendar, as far as extreme weather goes.
Not only is it New Zealand's official beginning to winter, but it's also the official beginning of the Atlantic hurricane season, producing famous storms such as Andrew, Katrina and Wilma.
While hurricanes,
typhoons and cyclones (they're all different names for the same thing) affect much of the globe it's the incredible news coverage from Central and Northern America that seems to make the headlines.
And although the hurricane season officially kicks off June 1, it was May 31 that saw the first named tropical storm of the 2008 season. Tropical Storm Arthur formed east of Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula - a popular tourist spot. You might remember the name of this region, hit by last years monster category 5 hurricane Dean.
The Atlantic hurricane season runs for 181 days and 1 day before it even started the first storm was named. Of course, that doesn't mean a thing. 2005, the year that made Katrina, was the stormiest season ever. The following year doom and gloom was predicted, but almost no hurricanes made landfall.
It was a similar story last year and that's prompted our weather partner, Weather.com (based in Atlanta, Georgia) to run a special story on locals who may have let their guard down for this year. Time will tell if this years season, predicted to be active, will result in direct hits to soil, or stay off shore.
If an active season affects the Gulf of Mexico be prepared for yet another jump in oil prices. There are thousands of oil rigs in the Gulf, after Katrina 20 went missing (seriously!) including one which was blown up a river in Mobile, Alabama - getting jammed under a bridge! Over 100 were badly damaged and it sent oil prices rocketing.
Meanwhile back in New Zealand and the first day of winter has been a relatively quiet one. A small low forming over central New Zealand will likely see some squally showers with isolated thunderstorms over the next 24 hours.
I guess my predictions for winter, based on established weather patterns, will see more high pressure over New Zealand. That means warmer daytime temperatures for the North Island and colder overnight lows (due to lack of wind).
In the South Island I see southerlies making things much cooler, but due to the high air pressure, a lot of those big rain bands wont make it very far up the South Island. With La Nina still in effect we could still see some isolated tropical rain storms in places like Northland, Auckland, Coromandel, Bay of Plenty and East Cape.
I'm not a fan of long range forecasts - even the climate experts struggle with accuracy. My gut instinct, based on previous weather patterns, is as good a prediction as any. And I predicted in January an end to droughts in April, so I can't be all that bad.
Speaking of droughts, while the droughts may be over, so too is the rain in a number of these areas. Eastern Waikato, Wairarapa, South Canterbury and inland Otago are all still very dry. Timaru received less than 10mms of rain last month.
I would expect the status quo for the next few weeks, but later this month or July we might be in for an all new ball game.