Whatever spin National tries to put on last night's 3News-Reid Research byelection poll in the seat of Northland, the result will have sent shockwaves through the ranks of the governing party.
Taking such an early lead over his National rival in the campaign will give Winston Peters' bandwagon even more momentum.
Peters' support registered at 35 per cent in the poll, against 30 per cent for National's candidate Mark Osborne. It would be unwise to put too much stock in the exactitude of those numbers. As a minimum, however, the poll answers a crucial question: does the New Zealand First leader have any chance of winning the seat. That he clearly has a chance should see more voters clambering aboard, far less fearful of casting a wasted vote.
The poll will leave National's tacticians more than perplexed. Nationwide, National is still polling at the levels which secured victory in last September's general election . Yet, it is seemingly in serious trouble in one of its supposedly safe seats.
If there is a comparison to be made, it is with Labour's defeat in the 1985 Timaru byelection which was held some 10 months after the election of a Labour Government which became hugely popular, especially in metropolitan areas.