John Armstrong: Little joy looms for Labour in byelection

Labour Party leader Andrew Little. Photo / Mark Mitchell

Wrong time; wrong seat.

Normally, a new leader of the Opposition would relish the chance to boost his or her profile and start making some real waves through the platform offered by a byelection.

Andrew Little is promising a "full-on" campaign during the Northland byelection. However, the Labour leader has sensibly ruled out there being much likelihood of his party winning the seat.

Little is wise not to start raising expectations that the current mood of the public is unlikely to fulfil. The byelection has really come too early in the parliamentary cycle to assist Opposition parties. National is still on a roll after last September's general election. It is difficult to see the current high levels of satisfaction with John Key's Government suddenly evaporating between now and byelection day on March 28.

Little's dilemma is that should he invest time and energy in a really full-on manner and Labour fails to increase its share of the vote in the seat, he will have set himself up to be deemed to have failed. If he is not seen to be campaigning hard, he risks being accused of turning his back on one of the poorest and most deprived electorates in the country.

Unfortunately for Little, however, many of those to whom he will be pitching Labour's message are on the Maori roll - or not on any roll.

Moreover, it is far too early to be talking new policy. Little will have to campaign voicing generalities.

The really blunt fact, however, is that Northland is a safe National seat. It is a safe seat because it is a rural seat. In the past three elections, the National candidate - Mike Sabin and John Carter before him - captured more than 52 per cent of the electorate vote. Carter got close to 60 per cent in 2008. The party vote dipped just below 50 per cent at the last election.

Little can take some consolation from the Labour candidate, Willow-Jean Prime, securing more than 25 per cent of the electorate vote at last year's election. Her result was in stark contrast to Labour's share of the party vote in the electorate - a miserable 17 per cent. The Maori lawyer has flagged her intention to re-seek nomination as Labour's candidate.

If she can lift her own vote to around 30 per cent, Labour should be well pleased - especially if the new National candidate sheds a few of Sabin's percentage points.

One thing Little does not have to worry about is his own seat in Parliament. Little just made it back as Labour's last list MP. Were Labour to win the byelection - contrary to some speculation - he would not have to stand down to ensure true proportionality was maintained between the parties in Parliament.