Jim Hopkins: Give those old beliefs a bit of a shakeup

The moon has been linked to all manner of strange rituals and scientific theories over the centuries. Photo / Supplied

There will be an earthquake one day

There will be an earthquake soon

There will be a shaking and quaking of things

It all depends on the moon.

No it doesn't. The moon's got nothing to do with it. Unless it does. Which it may. Perhaps. We just don't know. It's a bit like having lucky numbers for Lotto.

If you win, they work. If you don't, they don't. Y'pays y'r money and y'takes y'r choice.

Some things we know. Other things we believe.

The difference is evident. We know what is true - or think we do, until some rotter comes along and debunks the evidence on which we've relied. ("Sorry, lads, but that volcano's not run by the great god, Magmum. And I can prove it."

"Oh, bugger! Does that mean we're cancelling the human sacrifice?") Not necessarily. What our predecessors did in the sacrifice department would have depended on what they believed.

We don't believe things because they're true. We believe things because we want them to be true. We believe things that comfort us. Belief is a truth we hope for. It fills the gap between certainty and fear. It dwells in the realm beyond knowledge, where our primal desire to be safe finds solace in the possibility of things.

So when the Moon Man (who coined that gormless name?); when the Moon Man (shall we say Lunar Probabilities Analyst?); when the Moon Man predicted "one for the history books" in Christchurch on March 20: when he advised Aussies to avoid Canterbury because a 7+ tremor was coming, a significant number of frightened, anxious people took him at his word. And got out of town.

As they were obliged to do, if they believed his prediction. Getting out was an act of faith. But one that also made (near) perfect sense. You may remember, two years ago, how the shonky science behind the false spectre of anthropogenic global warming was spooking everyone. And you may recall various political eminences telling us it didn't matter if we were sceptical, the precautionary principle should apply.

It's the same here. If the Tectonic/Lunar Interface Analyst was right, the consequences would be dire. And his prediction seemed plausible. We know the moon affects tides - and our mental state. (Ask a counsellor!) It may influence the plates 'pon which we float as well. So getting out of town was a credulous and rational thing to do. It only offered solace and sensibly demonstrated the precautionary principle at work.

As did Christchurch on Sunday. The city definitely wasn't its usual bustling self. Those who were about walked boldly and with purpose, unfazed by the threat of lunar perturbations. And it was right that they did.

We now know, there was, thank goodness, no disaster "for the history books" - or the headlines either. Ken was more Rong than Ring. Yes, there was a judder in the evening big enough to be felt on the front page of The Harold but not big enough to damage more than one dairy. There's a host of conclusions we could draw. And a host that we will.

Some have already said the M**n M*n should apologise for scaring people. Mind you, that demand was made before the 5.1 tremor at 9.45 p.m. and hasn't been repeated since. Others will regard that evening quake as confirmation of the Gravitationally Bound Planetary Satellite Analyst's theory and give as much credence to Ken's next prediction as they did to his last.

We could even get all deep and meaningful and suggest that the rational world may have an irrational prejudice about the moon. It's always been a thing of beauty, yes. But even more a thing of mystery and intrigue. All manner of mischief has supposedly been done by the light of the silv'ry moon. Rituals of the unhealthy kind, covens, for example, dancing about, sacrificing goats and invoking the names of ancient goddesses.

Our faithful satellite, our long-time space companion, has ever been linked with the occult and mysterious. Under the murky auspices of the moon, we have imagined great malevolence and strangeness afflicting our souls. We have given the moon the power of our beliefs. But such pagan notions do not sit well with the devoutly rational and may even have led them to an irrational rejection of any lunar influence. Until some rotter comes along and debunks the evidence, etc etc.

Till then, they'll believe what they believe. And Ken will believe what he believes. And we'll believe what we believe. And whatever it is, it'll make us feel better. 'Cos that's what beliefs do.

There will be a ice age in August

There'll be glaciers on the lagoon

And there will be volcanoes erupting

It all depends on the moon

There will be an outbreak of rabies

And locusts and boils around noon

Such predictions will always alarm you

If you depend on the man of the moon