Jasper does u-turn

I was proud of my headline yesterday "Jasper the Ghost"....but I have to admit it was weather analyst Richard Green that said it to me in an email...I only thought of using it as a headline. I'm not the world's best headline writer...I read the Herald every day and look for the clever ones and despite 10 years writing for radio I still struggle to come up with clever ones. I've been waiting for months for a Sunday that has 100 per cent sunny weather right across New Zealand just so I can crack this gem out: "Sun-day". I really need to get out more.

Tropical Cyclone Jasper was downgraded Wednesday to a tropical depression and just like Hamish he's doing a U'ey and tracking north west. The forecasts for this cyclone were, in my view, pretty bad. I've found Australia's Bureau of Meteorology (BOM) to be bang on with their forecasts but they got this one wrong - and worse still was the coverage from Fiji.

Firstly, the storm surprised everyone by exploding into life as a Category 2 cyclone. It was predicted to remain a weak category 1 cyclone for a couple of days but within hours of forming it was already Cat 2 with winds gusting to 130km/h. At the time that the cyclone was peaking another frustrating thing happened - Australia stopped forecasting its track. Why? Because it was crossing out of their territory and into Fijis. If it had dipped a little furth south it would've been New Zealands. It's one of those unfortunate things for New Zealanders and those living in New Caledonia. If you look at the map above you can clearly see the boundaries that define which Government looks after the official forecasting for cyclones. They all come together in the area that's north west of NZ - usually an area we watch closely for storms like this that can come our way. From a news reporting point of view - and from the public's point of view - it makes things confusing and messy.

Now to be fair and balanced I have to admit that New Zealand sees only about 1 tropical cyclone come down our way each year and even rarer for one to actually make landfall. Australia should only be focusing on Australia and Fiji looks after many of the Fiji Islands. I think MetService would do a far better job than Nadi - it's a shame that we don't have Wellington covering the entire Nadi area too. Fiji's weather updates this time around were slow and out of date - and at one stage they had completely conflicting information on their site. Granted this cyclone was then dying and I guess all lost interest in it...but still, not professional in my eyes.

Before BOM let go of the reigns they predicted a central air pressure of 945hPa for Jasper on Friday - that could've put it close to the Cat 5 range if not in it - that's the strongest a cyclone can get. But 1 day earlier, on Thursday morning, the cyclone was downgraded to a depression and the air pressure had filled in to 1000hPa. Not even a storm.

I guess I'm venting a bit here... as usually these organisations do a good job but this just highlights the messiness of having 3 zones cover our one area. If you look at America you can see that Miami covers ALL of North America and northern parts of Central America - plus all the Caribbean. This means ANY hurricane that forms in the Atlantic or eastern Pacific Ocean will be monitored by these guys pretty much. Canada, which has some regions at the same distance from the equator as New Zealand, falls under America if any Atantic storm comes up the east coast. In NZ we need to rely on two organisations before MetService finally take controls. Once MetService has it it's fine - the information is detailed and trustworthy. Having one organisation covering it all means the news media - and weather news websites like the Weather Watch Centre - can go to one single source for all of the information. It's reliable and most of all consistent.

Going back to my fair and balanced line before - lets be honest where those borders all meet up in the north Tasman Sea/southern Coral Sea there is no real land mass. New Caledonia is the closest. I suppose you also have to draw the line somewhere...although to me drawing it east of NZ instead of just west of us would make a lot more sense.

From a news reporting point of view the current set up makes coverage of cyclones in our neck of the woods very poor. As I write this blog I still have low confidence of this storm affecting New Zealand - and our coverage was never focused on "Will it hit us?" it was always about watching these fascinating weather events unfold in our part of the world. It's about sharing with the public something we usually only see on American news reports from hurricanes coming into the Gulf of Mexico. These monster storms are absolutely fascinating to watch even if they're just travelling out at sea. I also want to cover them for the many thousands of Pacific Islanders and Australians living in New Zealand. Cyclones are killing machines in the south Pacific and we want to provide up to date, accurate, news for those anxious for it.

Of course storms that form in the Coral Sea do pose a risk to New Zealand. They are in the perfect position to strike us and if it wasn't for this large high in the Tasman Sea and over the North Island at the moment I think Jasper could've made a direct hit, just like Hamish could've.

So...has Jasper gone now? Not at all. Most computer models agree that Jasper will float about in the Coral Sea as a relatively harmless low. But next week things could change. Some computer models are now showing Jasper reforming, deepening and dropping into the Tasman Sea - and that increases the chances of rain and wind reaching New Zealand around Wednesday or Thursday next week. Like I said, my confidence levels are low at this stage, but Jasper certainly isn't disappearing altogether... perhaps not quite a ghost after all.

Predicting cyclones around Australia is very hard. In fact it's harder to predict the path of a tropical storm in our part of the world than it is in America. Have a look at this graphic below from BOM.

Research has shown that cyclones in the Australian region exhibit more erratic paths than cyclones in other parts of the world. A tropical cyclone can last for a few days or up to two or three weeks. Movement in any direction is possible including sharp turns and even loops. Both Jasper and Hamish have looped. It's a messy map and shows just how hard it is for forecasters to predict the path of a cyclone.

Now although Jasper is just a baby today we are still running a special link on this tropical depression. This is because we're curious to track where he goes...and we're watching computer models that show him moving south into the Tasman Sea and strengthening next week. Too early to say if New Zealand will get a soaking from it but I'd say it's worth keeping an eye on - even if it just for some geek weather watching!

Weather for cricket in Napier

I hope I'm not jinxing things here - but I think the weather for the cricket test in Napier looks the best it's been this season!

We ran a special forecast for Hamilton last week, but this week we've upped the quality of the forecasts to include detailed a.m. and p.m. information including wind speed and direction, humidity levels, sky conditions, chance of rain (in percentage form) along with temperatures (day and night) and even little weather icons...technology huh? You'll find it here.

Have a fantastic weekend.

Philip Duncan

Shown above: A map of international tropical cyclone warning centres. Graphic / Bureau of Meteorology