That New Zealand is a highly imprisoned country is pretty widely known - but even those who know the numbers can be excused some confusion. For the vast majority of people - both inside and outside the country - the imprisonment rate seems incongruous with New Zealand's image. Are we really so dangerous and riddled with crime that our imprisonment rates must be 34 per cent higher than Australia, 39 per cent higher than the UK, and 73 per cent higher than Canada? Is New Zealand really that rough and lawless?
Political one-upmanship between National and Labour, increasing sentence lengths, and greater difficulty in gaining parole can help explain our growing prison numbers. But without question, any analysis will look naked if it fails to address the moa in the room.
Fifty per cent of the prison population is Maori. It's a fact regularly cited in official documents, and from time to time it garners attention in the media. Given they make up 15 per cent of the population, it's immediately clear that Maori incarceration is highly disproportionate, but it's not until the numbers are given a greater examination that a more accurate perspective emerges.
With an overall population of 4.6 million and a prison muster of 9400, New Zealand has 204 prisoners per 100,000 people. It's this ratio that's used to compare incarceration rates around the world, but it's the internal comparison, between Maori and non-Maori that is more interesting, and more troubling, for New Zealand.
If Maori were imprisoned at the same rate as non-Maori, then the combined total prison population would reduce from 9400 to fewer than 4900. In this scenario, the country has no prison crisis and we're closing rather than building prisons. New Zealand's imprisonment ratio drops from 204 to 105 and we slide from being 7th in the OECD to 20th, smugly behind Australia, the UK and Canada. In other words, if Maori crime and conviction rates are the same as non-Maori, the effect is utterly transformative.