I don't need to tell you that the two-year anniversary of the quake is coming up. As I wrote about previously, Minister for Canterbury Earthquake Recovery Gerry Brownlee is well aware of it, and is fast trying to turn what many people from Christchurch would describe as an example of torpid mismanagement into a PR win. His latest attempt is an optimistically titled press release, "Wellbeing survey reveals positive outlook". Gerry has hand-picked some stats that suggest that every thing down here is going just swimmingly. For those of us that don't just read headlines, you can actually dive in and read the full survey. It's not exactly as Gerry says.
The key to this survey is in the methodology. It was undertaken between August 29 and October 15 last year. 2381 people responded to the survey. 1156 of them were from Christchurch City, 618 from Selwyn District and 607 from Waimakariri District. So that means that of the people who did respond, more than half (1225) aren't actually from Christchurch. I mean no disrespect to the people of Rolleston, Lincoln, Rangiora, Kaiapoi etc. I am sure they have had a hard time. But they don't have the same issues that people who actually live in the city do. They haven't had to deal with a lack of services, portaloos, red zoning, TC3 land, roadworks to the same extent that people who live in the city do.
The response rate to this survey was barely half - 52%. I would hazard a guess that if you were in the battered East of Christchurch, struggling through two snow falls in an broken shell of a house, answering some questions from CERA were lower on your list of things to do than they might have been for someone living on a lifestyle block in West Melton.
The survey does actually acknowledge this discrepancy, as early as Page 3: