Weather Watch: Lows developing north of NZ

A large pool of lower air pressure (which makes for better storm development) is developing directly north of NZ. Photo / Getty Images

The tropical energy north of New Zealand is growing again after a quiet week following monster cyclone Yasi.

A large pool of lower air pressure (which makes for better storm development) is developing directly north of us. After what has been more of a spring-like weather pattern over the past week (lots of westerlies) the pattern is very clearly shifting back to classic La Nina with easterlies affecting the north and lows forming in the tropics and sub-tropics.

While the remnants of cyclone Zaka passed by on Tuesday without incident there are clear signs that things are changing in our tropics with more lows bubbling up north and north east of New Zealand in the coming 10 days, according to long range models.

It looks as though Australian authorities at the Bureau of Meteorology will be naming a new cyclone this weekend or early next week in north western Queensland - judging by the models it could reach Cat 3 status before moving south west and making landfall near the Northern Territories / Queensland state line.

So what about New Zealand? Well - a string of highs (also called anticyclones in the Southern Hemisphere) will continue to trek along the Southern Ocean. Often during summer those highs sit over the Tasman Sea or New Zealand bringing us stable, calm weather. But not this summer. At this longitude it means more easterlies for the North Island and more changeable weather for the South Island.

This weekend may start of windy and showery in the lower South Island but most other regions are in for a sunny, settled, weekend bar a few showers in the upper North Island thanks to that developing easterly - which may become sub-tropical by Sunday or Monday. Oh and yep, that means more humidity. However the air temps won't be as high as last week for many of us so the humidity will be easier to live with.

I've got to say - this has been a fantastic summer for most regions. Granted not everyone...I'm sure those in Northland and Dunedin might not agree with me. But let's face - we've had a good mix of rain, long hot sunny days, warm nights to sit outside and the odd storm to spark things up a bit. It's been a perfect summer in my eyes... although I'd be happier if I saw a few more thunderstorms around New Zealand. You can't beat a good summer thunderstorms in the late afternoon or evening!

By the way, for those of you interested in Australian Weather News, WeatherWatch.co.nz has now launched a special "Australian Weather News" page.