It needs to 'rain like hell' to avert power cuts, says industry chief

By MATHEW DEARNALEY

Cold showers are only weeks away if the electricity crisis keeps getting worse, an industry leader has warned.

Power companies have started cutting power to hot-water cylinders in thousands of homes throughout the country.

But this is only for a few hours at a time and most people will not notice it.

Electricity Networks Association chief executive Alan Jenkins said yesterday that these cuts were to help suppliers to manage peak loads, and had little effect on water shortages in the southern hydro lakes.

What would be needed, unless it "rains like hell" into the lakes in the next three weeks, would be cuts to water-heating cylinders for three or four days at a time.

"You have to have water off for days at a time if you're going to get any decent energy savings," he said.

Time was running out for enough rain to fall before it became locked as snow in the Southern Alps until the spring thaw.

Winter Power Taskforce co-ordinator Patrick Strange said heavy rain yesterday in the lakes gave "a few days' grace".

But he warned: "We need it to be sustained - it does not change the need for savings.

"The weatherman has said the outlook is for below-average rainfall."

Dr Strange would not be drawn on the timing of compulsory power cuts, saying only that it would be better to achieve 10 per cent voluntary savings.

A television campaign encouraging savings is to start this weekend.

Savings on Wednesday - two days after Dr Strange's taskforce of power suppliers and major users lifted the target from 5 per cent to 10 per cent - edged up to 3.2 per cent from 3 per cent on Tuesday.

This compared with 3.1 per cent on Monday and 0.7 per cent on Sunday.

Hydro storage on Wednesday had fallen 5 percentage points over the previous seven days to 61 per cent of normal levels.

Contact Energy has been cutting power up to five hours a day to water cylinders in thousands of homes. Marlborough residents have had eight-hour cuts.

Mr Jenkins said cutting power to water cylinders for days on end was less drastic than blacking out whole suburbs on a rolling cycle, as had been done.

This was to be avoided if at all possible because of the likelihood of shutting businesses and causing economic damage.

"If you and I turn off the lights and have to have cold showers, that's inconvenient, but it has no adverse impact on gross domestic product," he said.

The Energy Efficiency and Conservation Authority warned householders yesterday not to turn water-heating thermostats down below 60C, for fear of incubating legionnaire's disease at lower temperatures.

Most households had 55 days of hot-water rationing during a supply shortage in 1992, when three Auckland power boards cut electricity for up to 17 hours a day.

Television transmission hours and street lighting were reduced before the Government agreed to pay about $20 million to compensate aluminium producer Comalco for lost exports in return for shutting one-third of its Bluff smelter.

That and rain late in July helped end the crisis.

Mr Jenkins blamed the 1998 industry reforms for the lack of new power stations.

He said they stopped a big construction push by electricity suppliers forced to split their retailing and line-distribution arms into separate companies.

"Cross-subsidising was seen as the ultimate sin, but the end result was that nobody got into new power generation."

Energy Authority chief executive Heather Staley said she understood that cutting water heating, even for 17 hours a day, would give only a 2 per cent power saving.

It was far better for householders to make voluntary savings, as a 5 per cent reduction could be achieved from such commonsense steps as washing clothes in cold water and having showers instead of baths.

A 10 per cent saving required more of a sacrifice and working out what activities a household was prepared to forgo, "but we are certainly not encouraging people to go without at a risk to their health".