Sustainable business: Kyoto Protocol relies on Russian support

Whether the Kyoto Protocol to curb greenhouse gas emissions comes into force will be decided in Moscow.

For the treaty to become binding it has to be ratified by nations responsible for 55 per cent of developed-country carbon dioxide emissions in 1990, Kyoto's baseline year.

The United States and Australia, at 36.1 and 2.1 per cent respectively, have said they will not be ratifying.

But Japan and 23 European countries, including the 15 members of the European Union and most recently Poland, have ratified, representing just over 40 per cent.

So Russia's 17.4 per cent is both necessary and sufficient to reach the critical mass of ratification.

At the Earth Summit in Johannesburg last month Russian Premier Mikhail Kasyanov said his country planned to ratify soon. The issue has to be put to the Russian legislature, the Duma.

The chances that Russia will ratify are high because of what in the jargon of Kyoto is called "hot air". "Cold chimneys" would be a better name.

Under the Kyoto Protocol, Russia has to limit its emissions on average between 2008 and 2012 to what they were in 1990.

Since 1990 and the collapse of the Soviet Union, the Russian economy has shrunk so dramatically its emissions are now about a third below the 1990 level.

Under Kyoto's rules Russia can sell the excess "carbon credits" to countries which expect to exceed their Kyoto targets.

To a much smaller degree New Zealand will also be a net seller on the international carbon market because of credits generated by the post-1990 increase in its plantation forest estate.

For that reason, Climate Change Minister Pete Hodgson says, New Zealand not ratifying would be akin to setting fire to a big cheque. Similar considerations are expected to prevail in Moscow.

Poland's ratification means it is no longer essential that Canada ratifies. At the Johannesburg summit, Canadian Prime Minister Jean Chretien said ratification would be put to Parliament for a vote before the end of the year, with a majority of the ruling Liberal Party's MPs in support of ratification.

At least until the end of its first commitment period, 2012, the Kyoto Protocol imposes commitments only on developed countries - a limitation which the United States has cited as one of the reasons for opting out.

Developing countries are responsible for about a quarter of present greenhouse gas emissions but are expected to overtake developed countries in aggregate emissions by 2020.

At Johannesburg Chinese Premier Zhu Rongji said China had completed the domestic procedure for approval of the protocol with a view to taking an active part in multilateral environmental co-operation.

Under Kyoto's rules tradeable credits can be generated by emission-reducing projects in developing countries, provided it can be shown they would not have occurred anyway.

China is estimated to produce about 10 per cent of global emissions.

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