Incoming President Donald Trump’s inauguration will be on January 21 (NZ time).
It looks as if Donald Trump’s presidency is going to start on a high akin to Ronald Reagan’s 1981 inauguration.
He’s escaped prison; the economy is okay; his approval ratings are up (while Joe Biden’s are grim). And now he has a hostage release deal totake credit for – before he’s even entered the Oval Office.
The announcement of a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas ahead of Trump’s swearing-in on Tuesday (NZ time) is not just good luck, it’s an endorsement of the Madmantheory of international relations (the theory associated with Richard Nixon’s administration, making hostile countries believe that the president was irrational and volatile). It suggests that Trump’s dedication to national and personal interest can break deadlocks.
True, Joe Biden must take sizeable credit for months of painstaking, behind-the-scenes work.
But Biden, a creature of the liberal world order and slave to institutional groupthink, is also reported to have failed to provide sufficient pressure to get a ceasefire over the line – particularly on the Israelis. This is what makes the role of Steve Witkoff, Trump’s Mid-East envoy, so fascinating.
Trump is pro-Israel, no doubt. But he’s also pro-Trump, so he wanted a ceasefire agreed ahead of the inauguration.
Hence Witkoff, a brash businessman rather than a career diplomat, went all-out to force Benjamin Netanyahu’s hand. One nice detail is that Bibi reportedly wanted to delay for the Sabbath and Witkoff replied that Jewish members of the US team were happy to work through it, so why not the Israelis?
Arab officials claim that Witkoff did more to sway the Israeli leader in one meeting than Biden did in a year. You can’t win against a real estate developer from the Bronx.
President-elect Donald Trump speaks alongside Steve Witkoff, his Mideast envoy. Photo / The New York Times
The media consensus is that Trump remains suspicious of Netanyahu after the latter recognised Biden’s victory in 2020. Trump reportedly said “f*** him”, and recently shared a controversial video in which Netanyahu is described as a “deep, dark son of a bitch”.
Petty, yes. Useful, it seems so. Biden was imprisoned by his historic affection for Israel, accused of being unwilling to push back against Netanyahu.
Trump, a freewheeling narcissist, gives the impression that he might walk away even from his allies – the same hint of imperial madness that compelled Nato leaders to raise spending or Arab states to recognise Israel during his first term.
The Madman approach is not gung-ho or pacifist; Trump avoids military adventures yet spends big on defence. Rather, it threatens action in an unpredictable manner. “You don’t want to mess with me.” Putin and Zelensky, take note.
A Gaza ceasefire, assuming it holds, is also a huge domestic win. Voters will be happy to see the return of hostages, along with the end of a military campaign that divided the Democratic base – indeed, there’s an irony that it took a Republican to pause a conflict that began under a liberal. The same was true of Korea and Vietnam.
In 1981, Reagan enjoyed a similar shot-in-the-arm. Iran chose to delay the release of the US embassy hostages until Reagan was sworn in. His predecessor, Jimmy Carter – who died over Christmas – had done the hard graft to secure their liberty, but the sense of a “new dawn” was enjoyed by the incoming Reagan administration.
Reagan was lucky, and entered office an unknown quantity. By contrast, it’s possible that a deal was struck in this instance because both sides know what the incoming president is like – how mean and random Trump can be.
