Incoming President Donald Trump’s inauguration will be on January 21 (NZ Time).
After the drift and equivocation that has defined Joe Biden’s approach to global security issues during his four years at the White House, Donald Trump’s impending return is certainly having a galvanising effect in resolving some of the world’s more intractable conflicts.
Trump’s inauguration has not even taken place, yet it is already evident that the mere prospect of his return to serve a second term as president is having a salutary impact on conflicts ranging from Gaza to Ukraine.
On Gaza, the arrival of Trump’s newly-appointed Middle East envoy, Steve Witkoff, to the region has broken the months-long impasse on the complex ceasefire/hostage release deal that the Biden administration first mooted last summer.
Biden had a fractious relationship with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, praising him one moment, only to castigate him the next. This meant the outgoing US president ended up having little leverage when it came to trying to persuade Netanyahu to end hostilities.
Cue the arrival of Witkoff, a plain-speaking, billionaire real-estate developer from Florida, who has been tasked by Trump with breaking the deadlock and securing the release of the remaining 98 hostages held by Iranian-backed Hamas terrorists ahead of next Monday’s inauguration.
Whereas Biden’s constant dithering enabled Netanyahu to run rings round him and Antony Blinken, his equally unimpressive Secretary of State, Witkoff’s no-nonsense approach appears to have paid dividends, with Netanyahu now ready to sign up to an agreement following a “tense” meeting with the US envoy at the weekend. The agreement would see Hamas release the remaining hostages, and Israel reduce its military presence in Gaza.
There are even reports in the Israeli media that hospitals have been put on standby to receive the released hostages this coming weekend, such is the high level of anticipation generated by Trump’s desire to get a deal done by next week.
Biden’s subsequent efforts to claim credit for the breakthrough in the final foreign policy address of his presidency, where he claimed his peace initiative was “finally coming to fruition”, is not just a pathetic attempt to secure his legacy as a true statesman. It is palpably untrue.
It was Trump’s explicit warning that “all hell will break out” if Hamas did not release the hostages before his inauguration that has proved to be the decisive factor in breaking the impasse.
As Witkoff made clear before flying to Israel: “The red lines [Trump] put out there – that’s driving this negotiation.”
With the outcome of the ceasefire resting on Hamas giving its approval, the fact that the Trump administration has already succeeded in persuading Netanyahu to moderate his long-standing opposition to a deal just goes to show the dramatic impact the President-elect is going to have on the global landscape once he is back in the Oval Office.
Joe Biden's attempt to claim any credit for the ceasefire would be palpably untrue. Photo / Getty Images
Ukraine is another issue that Trump is keen to resolve quickly, even though his aides now privately concede that it could take months, or even longer, to end hostilities.
Trump says he wants to arrange a face-to-face meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin as soon as he takes office.
But the intractable positions of both sides – with Ukraine demanding Nato membership in return for territorial concessions, and Putin refusing to countenance Ukraine joining the Western alliance – means that achieving any agreement will be a formidable challenge.
The situation is further complicated in Ukraine because the combatants have responded to Trump’s imminent return by intensifying their efforts to grab as much territory as possible in anticipation of future peace talks. While Trump might take this as a back-handed compliment, it only adds to the complexity of any future talks.
Even so, even at this early point in Trump’s political resurrection, it is clear that he means business when it comes to ending conflicts across the globe.
Trump’s willingness to resolve hostilities in places like Gaza and Ukraine is not the result of him being risk averse. This is the man who played a leading role in destroying Islamic State’s so-called caliphate in Syria during his first term as president.
What motivates Trump to invest his personal political capital in resolving global conflicts – apart from his predilection for deal-making – is his belief that they invariably result in American taxpayers picking up the lion’s share of the burden.
This is certainly true in Ukraine, where US aid to Kyiv significantly exceeds the contributions of other Western allies, and in Gaza, where the US remains the main supplier of military support to Israel.
Ending these conflicts will not only help to make the world a safer place: it will ease the financial burden placed on the US by fulfilling its traditional role as the world’s policeman.
It is an obligation Trump would be more than happy to subcontract to other Nato allies, assuming, that is, they invest sufficiently in their defence requirements to fulfil such a role.
This is something that is likely to attain equal importance with his peacemaking exploits in Gaza and Ukraine once Trump is back in the White House.
