KEY POINTS:
One week ago I described the upcoming low as something that wasn't "out of the box". A low that was the "size of Australia" and was different than our every day low.
While it wasn't going to be as intense as those two late July storms, it still had the potential to disrupt the lives of many kiwis - through the severe weather or simply through the fact that many of us were going to get yet another wet weekend!
The low has certainly affected many of us across the country. For me, in Auckland, it was pretty much another indoors weekend looking out at my long lawns and wondering if I could be bothered even leaving the comfort of my warm, dry, house!
Further south and snow falls over central parts of both islands were considered the heaviest since the early 1990's. Snow flurries fell to sea level across southern and eastern coastlines of the South Island including parts of Christchurch again.
The extra snow has increased the avalanche risk across most snow covered mountains in New Zealand - and huge hail storms turned the ground white like snow from Levin to Wellington closing roads and making for some spectacular photos.
And then, of course, there's the size of this system - the size of Australia - not an "ordinary" sized low. This large size meant much of New Zealand would be affected by this system for a number of days. Many of us wouldn't see anything too severe - but heavy showers, cold winds and the odd hail or thunder storm kept us rushing from our cars to the supermarket or into work! Now, sseven days later, the low is finally easing and a couple of relatively quiet days are on the way.
The Weather Watch Centre was first to publicly predict the cold snap in the South Island - albeit a relatively weak one - seven days ago. I thought this might be a good opportunity to clarify what the Weather Watch Centre does. We are not a traditional forecaster. Ultimately we are a weather news website - we express our long range thoughts and opinions and invite every day kiwis to watch and see what happens and share their comments.
If, one week out in advance, we see evidence of something big happening, we'll write a news story about it, maybe even add in our own predictions. We'll report the "evolution" of any approaching weather event - if it weakens we'll say so. If it strengthens we'll say that too. This has never been done so publicly in New Zealand before.
A few critics suggest reporting weather news several days in advance is "dangerous". But it isn't. In fact, if it generates discussion then it's definitely pro-active. We choose our language carefully and don't want to blow things out of proportion - we want to be as bang on as possible. (If we get it wrong too often, people will stop trusting us!)
This is also why we have our "we got it wrong" policy. In the rare event when something doesn't eventuate when we predicted it will, we'll learn from it - and be public about it. Many Kiwis have said to me they think it adds more credibility to admit when you get it wrong - and I totally agree. Admit your mistake, learn from it, and try and avoid it again!
In the United States, where Weather News companies have existed for quite some time (Weather.com, AccuWeather.com etc) they'll discuss approaching storms several days in advance. Last week they were warning of possible hurricanes arriving - 10 days in advance!
Some think this is sensationalising the weather, but it isn't. We are simply lifting the bar on public discussion about New Zealand's weather.
Many Kiwis want to know more than just the forecast - they want to learn about systems, they want to feel the excitement that forecasters have watching a possible storm developing and predicting its tracking.
If people think talking about systems more than a few days in advance is foolish then perhaps they should read the emails I get from every day New Zealanders who 'desperately want to know what's happening with the weather in Auckland in two weeks time' for their wedding, or birthday party or holiday. They don't want to know three days out that a storm might be possible, they want to know seven or ten days away, even if our confidence levels are extremely low, just hearing what might happen is enough to either put their minds at ease, or give them plenty of time to organise a back up plan - and they'll check back for updates.
Question: Is talking about future storms at risk of "crying wolf"? Answer: nope!
News editors will still scrutinise every Weather Watch press release as they'd do with any other news story that crosses their desk each day. I'll be the first to tell a reporter that my confidence levels are "very low" or "you may want to talk to me in a few days about this when the forecast is clearer" - to ensure that we don't sensationalise any low pressure system
But for those who do want to watch small lows developing a long way out and watch with interest as they deepen and move towards New Zealand, or fade out and never make landfall, then I strongly suggest visiting the Weather Watch Centre.
We've had fantastic emails of support from international pilots, farmers, teachers, corporate managers, boaties, skiers, Mums and Dads, teenagers, truck drivers - even senior meteorologists!
By the way - neither my colleague, Richard Green, or myself are meteorologists and have never claimed to be. (And in fact, I think that helps us sometimes!). We do, however, rely on the highest level forecasting data backed up by meteorologists in both New Zealand and America.
Some suggest we shouldn't be allowed to talk about the weather like this because neither of us have a degree in meteorology - but dismissing our skills is like dismissing the weather knowledge of every farmer, boatie or New Zealander who spends a lot of time outdoors.
Most farmers I know have no weather training - but I'd go with their predictions nine times out of ten. If they say the rain won't make it to their farm - they'll probably be right!! Their gut instinct is the most valuable weather instrument they have on the farm.
A mixture of understanding the science, years of studying and trusting that all important gut instinct are our most valuable weather instruments at the Weather Watch Centre - and along with our 30 weather reporters across New Zealand and all the emails and photos sent in by weatherwatch.co.nz readers we're proud to provide the latest weather news on a daily basis to everyday kiwis who can finally read more than "just the forecast".
Philip Duncan
Pictured above: Satellite image showing clear skies over New Zealand and snow covering the Central North Island Plateau and on the Southern Alps of the South Island. Photo / NASA
For the latest weather news keep up to date with The Radio Network's new Weather Watch Centre or the NZ Herald weather section.
