Ruth Berry: Rogue MP gifts Brash a chance to appear decisive

After two weeks in the twilight zone, Don Brash re-emerged yesterday to stamp his authority on the National caucus.

He has probably never had an opportunity as good as the one Brian Connell provided.

Of course, a number of National MPs believe Brash would not have been forced to reassert that authority if it weren't for Connell confronting him in caucus about his alleged affair.

But that's a moot point, especially if the person who did leak the details remains in the caucus, as Connell maintains.

A number in the National hierarchy believe Connell was the leak. Brash would no doubt prefer to believe so, as would his supporters.

Others might consider it prudent politics to encourage the leader to take this view in order to avoid aspersions being cast elsewhere.

Many National MPs, particularly Brash, must have developed suspicions recently. The two alternative leadership teams floated in the media involve combinations of his second, third, fourth and seventh-ranked MPs - his inner sanctum.

There is no doubt both John Key and Bill English want his job.

Both have worked assiduously to avoid being implicated in any mutinous talk. But when the affair scandal broke, Brash called Australian-based strategist Bryan Sinclair, a sign that the National leader must have been deeply worried about whom he could trust.

While he's dismissed media coverage of the rumblings, he must privately be wondering who all the "senior MPs" reported recently are.

Brash has been frazzled, as his poor management of the weekend's further revelations about the Exclusive Brethren showed.

This week's poll was pivotal in burying any immediate moves to depose him. But Brash clearly felt he needed to confront his would-be (albeit anonymous) assassins and critics with a clear warning, as did the board.

As it is now clear, the voters haven't sided with Connell over the "affair" issue, but he proved a convenient vehicle.

In a sense he was probably something of a scapegoat. Brash could point to nothing Connell said to the media two weeks ago which was truly offensive, and in fact didn't try.

On the face of it, the MP did not appear to seriously breach caucus discipline, if at all.

But he has been an irritant for Brash and the board, which is generally less sympathetic to MPs' peccadilloes than the caucus.

Some board members wanted a harder line taken against Katherine Rich when she clashed with Brash over welfare.

They had already put Connell, something of an anti-authoritarian loner who has already labelled the leader "stupid", on notice.

He was well aware he had no future under Brash. What he'll be weighing up now is what sort he might have under another leader and whether it's worth waiting. Or whether he should lob a couple of more grenades as his parting shot.