IRB executive tips Auckland to host quake city matches

AMI Stadium in Christchurch city. Photo / Sarah Ivey

Auckland is set to host more Rugby World Cup games, including two quarter-finals, with quake-affected Christchurch looking likely to lose its matches, the Weekend Herald has learned.

A senior official at the International Rugby Board says the chances are firmly against Christchurch being able to stage its seven scheduled matches during the World Cup, including two quarter-finals.

In a blow to the quake-shattered city, the official, who spoke on condition of anonymity, said it would be a "mammoth effort" to rebuild Christchurch in time for the September tournament.

"Most intelligent people would say the infrastructure and hotels would not be there and ready in time. And even if they were, would people want to go to Christchurch ?

"There is a huge risk, a massive risk ... as regards further earthquakes."

He said that if Christchurch were to lose its games, most of them - if not all - would be shifted to Auckland.

"My feeling would be that the only city that could cope with the extra matches would be Auckland. It is the biggest city," he said.

But the official stressed that no decision had been made, partly because of the sensitive nature of the subject and because the damage to Christchurch facilities was still being assessed. A decision would likely be made at the board's next meeting on March 25.

This comes as GNS Science geological hazard modeller Matt Gerstenberger says rugby fans visiting Christchurch will have to contend with a magnitude-4 or greater aftershock every couple of weeks during the tournament.

Dr Gerstenberger said the frequency and severity of aftershocks Christchurch residents were experiencing should greatly reduce in the months leading up to the Rugby World Cup. But the probability of an earthquake of magnitude 6 or greater within the next year was roughly 6 per cent.

The chance of another large aftershock decreases by the day, but seismologists cannot rule out another magnitude 5 or 6 tremor, as the Lyttelton centred-earthquake was itself believed to be an aftershock.

Rugby World Cup Minister Murray McCully, who expects to receive full engineering reports this weekend, said he would not respond to comments from unnamed sources.

However, Prime Minister John Key has slated a British rugby writer's suggestion Christchurch could already be written off as a cup venue.

"It's great Peter Bills can make that call without seeing the engineering reports, understanding how long it takes to fix up the turf, what the accommodation options are in Christchurch and whether there's enough entertainment facilities," he told RadioLive yesterday.

"When you have that information then you get out there and make a decision."

Nevertheless even if his Government believed, based on the stadium engineering reports and other information, that Christchurch could be made ready for the matches, it was still the IRB's call. Mr Key expected a decision within 10 days.

Meanwhile, Auckland hospitality and business leaders are confident the city will cope with any influx of visitors extra games would bring.

More than 119,000 tickets have already been sold for cup games in Christchurch. The two quarter-finals scheduled in the southern city for October 8 and 9 would bring the biggest increase in visitors, but at a time when Auckland would not be hosting other games.

"Auckland is ready for the big bulge - the semifinals and final. So to add another couple of games on is a relatively straightforward proposition," said Graeme Osborne, the former head of Tourism Auckland. "It's pushing out the shoulder of the finals bulge, that's all. If we assume Auckland can accommodate the finals, then it's safe to assume Auckland can accommodate two quarter-finals."

Michael Baines, chief executive of the Motel Association, agreed, and said that any pressure on accommodation caused by extra pool games could be absorbed by the Greater Auckland region.

"I think Auckland will handle it standing on its head ... Sometimes we get carried away by our own sense of isolation. An onerous commute doesn't necessarily enter into it for our visitors."

While shifting the quarter-finals would be relatively straightforward, deciding where to move pool games to so as to minimise disruption to supporters' itineraries would be more difficult.

The well-supported England team are scheduled to play Romania in Dunedin less than a week after their game against Georgia in Christchurch on September 18.

Alex Swney, CEO of the Heart of the City business group, said package tours for the cup could be "hideously" complicated, but Auckland would cater for any extra visitors.

He said if Auckland did benefit economically from any extra games, a way would have to be found to return the benefit back to Christchurch.