Poll of polls: Minority government on the way

By COLIN JAMES

The polls point to a minority Labour government.

The Herald poll of polls, averaging the three nationally published polls taken this week, gives Labour 42 per cent, down dramatically from the 53 per cent when Prime Minister Helen Clark called the election.

On the poll average, her gamble for a majority would fail miserably.

Labour's tally would be 53 seats. Helen Clark would need not only Jim Anderton (1 per cent and only one seat) but the Greens (8.7 per cent and 11 seats). United Future's 4.4 per cent (six seats) would get her to 60 seats, still one short of a majority.

Her problems are nothing compared with National's.

The campaign has been one long continuation of an already long decline, to an almost unbelievable 22 per cent and 27 seats this week.

If the polls are even within cooee of tomorrow's result, National has some extremely painful soul-searching ahead.

You have to go back to the 1920s for a comparable figure for a "major" party.

The election campaign has belonged to the minors. New Zealand First, stuck around 3 per cent for 2 1/2 years, has soared to 9.2 per cent (12 seats) and Act, while easing over the past week, is a mite up on 1999 at 8 per cent (10 seats).

In last night's TV One Colmar Brunton poll, Labour had 44 per cent, National 21, New Zealand First 10, the Greens 8, Act 7 and United Future 4 per cent.

TV3's NFO poll had Labour at 43 per cent, National 21, the Greens 9, New Zealand First 8, Act 8 and United Future 3.9 per cent.

The poll of polls is a rolling average of the four nationally published polls: Herald-DigiPoll, TV One Colmar Brunton, TV3 NFO and UMR-Insight.

Because the last Insight poll was last month, the latest figures include only the three most recent polls taken this week by the other three organisations.

* ColinJames@synapsis.co.nz

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