By AUDREY YOUNG
Bill English's pledge of loyalty to Jenny Shipley is both meaningful and meaningless.
It means that as deputy he cannot work to undermine her leadership. It is an essential pledge, and certainly meaningful to colleagues who would not contemplate electing him next Wednesday without it.
They not only have to have the pledge, they have to believe it, and there is little doubt that it is genuine.
But it does not necessarily mean that Mrs Shipley's leadership is assured and that he could not replace her before the election. To that extent, it is meaningless.
National loathes Opposition. It is used to power, and its MPs are a ruthless bunch. Even butter-wouldn't-melt Wyatt Creech had a lead role in the cut-throat coup of Shipley versus Bolger.
Basic political instinct dictates that if your party is doing very badly before an election, the problem is addressed before the election, if there is time.
It makes little sense to say 12 months from an election: "Looks a dead cert we're going to lose this election under Jenny. Let's wait until after the election to get rid of her."
Despite the clear support Mrs Shipley has from her caucus at present, if she does not perform this year she might yet be forced out by Mr English's supporters.
He has promised only not to challenge her - not to refuse the mantle if it is there for the taking.
She cannot afford to let party polling slip to the low 30s this year. Hitting the terrible 20s would be terminal.
But if a slump occurred closer to the 2002 election, Mr English might not accept the poisoned chalice of leadership in the way Mike Moore did from Labour Prime Minister Geoffrey Palmer in 1990.
The scenario that could see Mr English as leader, despite his pledge, presupposes that he will win the deputy's contest against Ilam MP Gerry Brownlee next week.
The wider consequences to the party of an English loss are dire enough for him to attract votes from colleagues who are not really supporters at heart.
Such a loss would result in a small but inherently destabilising faction of senior MPs in the "brat pack," Mr English, Roger Sowry, Tony Ryall and Nick Smith.
The internal tensions would dominate coverage of the party - exactly what Mrs Shipley is trying to avoid after the distractions of leadership speculation last year.
Being a failed deputy would weaken Mr English's standing as finance spokesman, too.
Mrs Shipley is refusing to publicly endorse either candidate, but of course she does not need to. Last year she encouraged Mr English to consider the deputy's post. It is in her interests.
He was unpersuaded. Now he has accepted advice that his preference to stay outside the tent and create a sense of distance with the leadership was putting him offside with his colleagues and damaging his chances of eventually securing the top job.
Having now agreed to Mrs Shipley's original request, he cannot afford to lose what is essentially a succession contest.
Mr Brownlee can afford to lose and still be a winner.
The fact that he was promoted to the front bench and given education to take on toughie minister Trevor Mallard is less surprising than the fact that, after just four years, he is a credible opponent to Mr English.
Mr Brownlee is one of two new faces on the front bench, the other being Bob Simcock, with welfare.
Mrs Shipley's reshuffle was a neat piece of political work. She has avoided making enemies of people who could undermine her.
Seven of the nine front-benchers have new responsibilities, including Mr Sowry in health and Mr Ryall in police.
Apart from Max Bradford, who is very credible in defence, former ministers are no longer attached to their former portfolios.
Mrs Shipley has given herself lead role in Closing the Gaps attacks, one area in which PM Helen Clark is pleasing no one. It may give Mrs Shipley the chance she so badly needs to dent the Prime Minister.
National has been polling respectably around the high 30s. If it maintains that over the next year, there will be little incentive to remove Mrs Shipley; 38 per cent, for example, is within striking distance of winning. Assuming National also has a viable coalition partner, it probably needs to poll between 40 and 45 per cent to regain the Treasury benches.
There may be an incentive for Mr English if a win looks possible, but there would be little incentive for the rest of the caucus to start a messy war to remove Mrs Shipley.
Mr English might have to be patient if the party does credibly. And he can afford to be.
He is still only 39.
He may have convinced close political players and observers that he is the logical heir apparent to Mrs Shipley, but he has yet to make much impact on the public.
Mrs Shipley was not to everyone's liking after making her reputation with social welfare cuts and managing a reformed health service. But at least when she became leader, the public knew exactly who she was.
Mr English is still a relative stranger to much of the country. He must use the time to build his profile and convince colleagues that he is capable of being a team player.
If Mrs Shipley hangs on to her job this term and looses the next election, there is no question she will go.
She has made changes to her own approach. Since the end of last year, she has seemed more confident and relaxed as Opposition leader. With the caucus housework due to be finished next week on the election of the deputy, she is in a good place to start the parliamentary year.
But she has never done well in head-to-head combat with Helen Clark, and that looms as her first crucial test when the House resumes on February 13.
The pressure will be on to match the prime ministerial speech with a cracking good show herself to start reversing perceptions that she cannot foot it against Helen Clark.
Failure to do that could indicate trouble ahead, pledge or no pledge.
<i>Politics review:</i> Ambitious English must bide his time
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