Political review: The question is: how early?

By VERNON SMALL

It's time to stop all this speculation about an early election.

The election will be early. It's just a question of how early.

Government strategists are focusing on two main scenarios. The front-runner by a nose is a date in late July or early August. The second option is a mid-October poll.

Both fit the main prerequisites. They allow a clear period for a six-week campaign without a major overseas trip for Labour's not-so-secret weapon, Helen Clark. Both offer dates which do not clash with a holiday weekend or an All Black game, here or in Australia, that might displace and distract voters.

The same strategists have all but ruled out a "late" election - much after the end of October - because time is needed for coalition talks and to complete the address-in-reply debate after the Government has outlined its programme.

The Greens - Labour's most likely, perhaps only, coalition partner - will not sign a blank coalition cheque as the Alliance did. They are not looking for a proscriptive tome, as New Zealand First did, but they do want a detailed agreement.

Green leaders have told Labour they would need at least two weeks to negotiate a coalition deal and then take it back to their members for approval.

An early-early election is becoming more likely as National daily exposes the absurdity of Deputy Prime Minister Jim Anderton maintaining the parliamentary fiction that he is leader of a single Alliance in the House.

Labour's view is that going early would allow it to cash in while the May 23 Budget - sporting some very positive economic and fiscal news - is still fresh in voters' minds.

That would give it a platform to stress its effective economic management - always Labour's vulnerable point.

After the Budget, a couple of weeks of House time would be needed for debate and legislation before the campaign could start.

That suggests two likely dates: July 27 and August 10.

The first is halfway through the Tri-Nations rugby series and after the two home games. The All Blacks' fortunes should be as good as they will get and there is always a sneaking suspicion - which no one wants to defy - that good rugby results translate to good electoral karma for the Government.

August 3, already tipped by some media, looks unlikely because it clashes with the Bledisloe Cup game in Sydney.

August 10 is an away game for the ABs in Durban, broadcast in the wee small hours after the election results would be in. The following Saturday - August 17 - would clash with the Pacific Island Forum, which Clark hopes to attend.

But if dates are easy to find, the justification for so early a poll is less clear.

Of course it has its attractions for Labour, and party president Mike Williams is clearly straining at the reins.

The party is ready and riding high in the polls; the economic outlook is serene. He believes the longer Laila Harre's Alliance has to organise, the more votes it will glean - mainly at Labour's expense.

But Clark does not want to use instability as the trigger for an early poll, and in all truth there is none. Her Government retains the confidence of as many MPs as it did after the 1999 election.

Anyway, despite some furious focus-group work, Labour is adamant the Anderton party ructions are not showing on voters' radar screens. They will be aware that bad news can take time to seep into public opinion and, like rust, never sleeps. But Clark will not want to dump on Anderton by blaming his discomfort and lack of credibility.

There is no reason to think Anderton's Progressive Coalition party would otherwise suffer from an early election. He has said he will join his new party and begin campaigning only once the House rises.

Whether the election is in October or July, he will have only six weeks to campaign.

He may even welcome one sooner than later.

Otherwise he has condemned himself to a six-month sentence with a party he now opposes, unable to promote the party he wants to succeed.

Clark may want to offer him, and herself, an early parole.

The trigger was never going to be the resignation of National's Brian Neeson and a threatened byelection.

The loss of an Opposition vote is neither here nor there, and a Neeson resignation, now ruled out anyway, would only force Clark to name the latest date - in November - before which she would call an election.

It is feasible Clark could point to the general damage being done to Parliament's reputation and effectiveness by the constant wrangling over the Alliance MPs' legitimacy.

More likely she will want to deliver a positive spin - to be part of the solution, not the problem - by claiming that an early election is required to give the Government a new mandate, based around a new programme (with a Green tinge). That may be on show at Labour's congress, just a week before the Budget.

So are there any early warning signs to look out for?

In her public comments Clark has already shifted the focus to the short-term - the Budget.

Experienced hands around Parliament also advise keeping a weather eye on the normally low-profile Imprest Supply Bills.

They provide the cash that oils the machinery of government. The Governor-General would want to be assured that money supply was in place before she would approve an election. Two such bills are due before the end of July. If they are brought in early they should be viewed as the first cuckoo of spring.

Labour's second "window" - and currently the less likely one - begins after Clark returns from the sustainable development conference in South Africa in early September.

A six-week campaign after that would take us to October 12 or 19 for an election. Tight but do-able.

Either way the fireworks will be over by Guy Fawkes Day.