Political review: Fed up on a high-fibber diet

By JOHN ARMSTRONG

Let the spin begin.

For the next four weeks, you, dear voters, will be fed a diet of half-truths, mistruths and everything but the truth.

Tomorrow afternoon heralds the opening of the campaign proper.

Labour launches at Auckland's Aotea Centre; National holds its ticket-only rally in the North Shore Events Centre.

Bill English returns to the venue of his boxing spectacular, but his party is already punch-drunk.

Few such contests have looked so lopsided. You have to go back to 1987 to find a governing party so far ahead of its rival. It is tempting to not only write off National but also the election campaign as a whole. It is a temptation to be avoided.

Despite the best efforts of the spin doctors to ensure their political masters meekly follow their tight scripts, campaigns tend to be unpredictable rollercoasters.

Party leaders can stumble over the smallest things, which are magnified out of all context then quickly forgotten.

Such incidents, however, build up the perception of how well a party is doing, confirming or shaking voter prejudice and helping to firm up voting intentions.

Campaigns matter - but some parties enter them better-placed than others.

Labour

Begins the campaign with a stranglehold on the determinants of electoral success.

Helen Clark has provided the strong leadership the electorate craves from its Prime Minister. As a political scientist, she also understands the conservative nature of most New Zealand voters - a conservatism that killed off previous Labour administrations.

She has run her Government with that in mind, denying National its historic claim to be better managers of the economy and the country's affairs.

Having provided stability, Clark has made stability the issue.

The Greens threaten stability; National cannot provide it because it has no chance of winning, so vote Labour.

To combat this logic, English is trying to convince National-leaning voters that Labour will not get enough votes to govern alone, and will have to rely on the Greens.

His problem is that the instability inherent in such a coalition is driving his supporters Labour's way.

As a bystander to this stability argument, National is having to fight the election on more peripheral issues - such as the Treaty - which are important but will not determine the result.

Labour's weaknesses? As the party's biggest asset, Clark is always at risk of being its biggest weakness. It is a short step from dominance to arrogance.

Clark is under instruction to look humble. Being so cautious, her Government will be accused of looking backwards instead of forwards. The test of that will be Labour's new set of pledge-card promises, to be released tomorrow.

National

Has already failed English's own test. He says that to be elected, Oppositions have to behave in a fashion that gives voters confidence they can run an effective Government.

National has yet to mature into that kind of highly disciplined Opposition. Regeneration has been patchy; English's frontbench looks listless; the party does not have one potent issue it can call its own.

Move over Brat Pack, hello Brash Pack. National campaigns in the bizarre position of having a finance spokesman, David Carter, who will be replaced after the election.

Don Brash is fast becoming the de facto spokesman. He could kickstart a debate about economic growth that Labour might find uncomfortable.

Michael Cullen, however, refuses to debate with him because Brash is not the real spokesman.

For his part, English will be judged less on the election result and more on his campaigning. No one expects a win, but the party needs evidence he can deliver next time.

English is not quite the ugly duckling Clark was before the 1996 election. But he will want this campaign to lift his standing as a potential prime minister in the way the 1996 campaign transformed Clark.

He will survive a bad result - there is no viable successor in waiting. But sacrifices will be deemed necessary; the knives may be out for his deputy, Roger Sowry.

The Greens

Winston Peters might ridicule them as "fruit loops", but there is nothing loopy about the Greens' campaign organisation, already evident in the party's slick advertising.

Sensing an early election, the Greens began their campaign the day their MPs walked out of Parliament over genetic modification and have not looked back since.

Being attacked by other leaders has only boosted their popularity as the anti-establishment party, especially among young voters.

New Zealand First

Another case of someone carefully timing his run. Peters is talking the toughest on law and order and immigration, knowing full well Labour will never agree to implement his extreme policies.

Most people will not be fooled, but the "angry" vote does not care. NZ First could yet be good for 5 per cent.

Act

Fighting for life as it hovers just on or below the 5 per cent threshold.

The common wisdom is that Act will be back.

Not necessarily. The party's low-tax, anti-welfare creed has a dwindling audience, there is huge competition for the "get tough with crims" vote, and - for all his survival skills - Richard Prebble is past his use-by date as leader.

Worst of all, Act knows that voters know the party is irrelevant to the formation of the next Government.

One plus is that polling shows Act close enough to the threshold for people to feel they are not risking a wasted vote.

If things get desperate, however, National might have to allow Rodney Hide to win in Epsom to keep its ally in Parliament.

Jim Anderton's Progressive Coalition

There is life in the old dog yet. Anderton will hold Wigram.

Despite deserving a big share of the blame for the breakup of the Alliance, he enjoys enough respect nationwide to bring a couple of MPs back into Parliament with him.

The Alliance

Bye-bye Laila Harre. The odds on the self-proclaimed "Only Choice Left" winning Waitakere are roughly the same as Lenin rising from his tomb.

However much they respect Harre, those who voted Alliance in 1999 must know that they would be casting a wasted vote this time.

* This is the final weekend politics column until after the election. The Herald will feature extensive coverage of the campaign leading up to the vote on July 27.

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