Political review: Clark revs up the stragglers

By JOHN ARMSTRONG

No sooner had Helen Clark stepped off the plane last Sunday after her summer break cross-country skiing in California's Sierra Nevada than she was on the phone to some of her cabinet ministers.

She wasn't calling to invite them around to look at her holiday snaps.

Next week's cabinet meeting formally kicks off the political year, and Clark delivered a stern pep-talk to colleagues who are under-performing in their portfolios.

The Prime Minister's message? Sharpen your political antennae for election year, spot problems early and shut them down, tidy up loose ends, get out and sell what the Government has done and start front-footing in the media.

Clark won't name names, but Beehive sources say Defence Minister Mark Burton and Health Minister Annette King, who have struggled to keep their heads above water, are among those who have been given a rev-up.

Something has certainly happened to Burton. Last year, he appeared hands-off and aloof. This week, he was all over the media, more than ready to answer questions surrounding the leaking of confidential Defence Force documents.

To top it off, both he and King have made a point of doing the rounds of Parliament's Press Gallery.

Clark followed her own dictum, quickly quashing unhelpful "will she? won't she?" speculation by announcing she will return to Waitangi on Waitangi Day after a two-year absence.

Not all such distractions can be dealt with so decisively; not all political sideshows are sorted so swiftly.

Clark's Government has suffered more than a few mishaps. Yet, these have not eroded public confidence in her Administration; Labour's popularity is undiminished.

But this is election year. In the absence of any policy offensive from National, Clark is expecting the Opposition to serve up a diet of mini-scandals in a desperate bid to get traction.

Being on guard against ministerial stuff-ups and complacency reflects the fine margin within which Labour is operating. Without counting its chickens too early, Labour is justifiably confident of winning the election. The question is by how much.

It is unlikely Labour will secure enough votes to govern alone. The next-best outcome would be governing as a majority Labour-Alliance coalition without having to rely on support from the increasingly irascible Greens or the always unpredictable New Zealand First.

To do that, Labour and the Alliance must capture around 48 per cent of the vote, assuming roughly 95 per cent of the vote is cast for parties which beat the threshold and qualify for a share of Parliament's 120 seats. (The other 5 per cent is "wasted" on tiddler parties.)

The Alliance is now expected to struggle to make even 5 per cent, compared to the 8 per cent it secured in 1999.

That means Labour must win around 43 to 45 per cent of the vote. Although it was consistently registering at such levels in polls last year, Labour cannot afford any slippage.

Asked to state her election-year priorities, Clark simply lists five basics - the economy, health, education, superannuation and law and order.

In covering those basics, Clark has invested considerable time and energy shoring up core Labour constituencies, particularly Maori and the elderly.

Her return to Waitangi has been painted by opponents as election-year tokenism. But it is the cash poured into "Closing the Gaps" programmes which is paying dividends in Maoridom. Labour's private polling shows the Maori vote solidly behind Clark's party.

In another act of good faith to a core constituency, Labour will this year introduce long-promised legislation abolishing asset-testing for the elderly in long-term residential care, although the measure will not be passed into law until after the election.

Another nod to the elderly - and Labour's low- and middle-income voters - was the pre-Christmas package announcing an extra $2.4 billion for hospitals and primary health care.

Harder to anticipate is the economy, although Clark is quietly confident that the post-September 11 gloom has lifted and the Treasury's forecast of a modest pick-up in growth through the year will prove accurate.

In the meantime, Clark will try to capture the high-ground on economic policy by rebutting Bill English's criticism that the Government is doing nothing to lift New Zealand's economic performance long term when she delivers her annual statement on the opening day of Parliament next month.

Clark will release an "Innovation Strategy" document drawing together ideas flowing from last August's Knowledge Wave conference in Auckland.

In particular, the document will talk of giving priority to particular areas of the economy, such as biotechnology and information technology, where growth and investment can be speeded up.



Labour's relationship with business has mellowed as dire predictions about the impact of the Employment Relations Act have not materialised.

But irritants remain, notably ratification of the Kyoto Protocol on greenhouse gases and new occupational safety laws.

On a broader level, potential political headaches include the new Maori television channel, once it is up and running, and New Zealand Post's Kiwibank.

Kiwibank is the Alliance's worry. Labour's big election-year worry is the Alliance.

The battle for the heart and soul of the Alliance is now about the party's direction after the election. The question is the degree to which that battle destabilises the party - and possibly the Government - beforehand.

The flashpoint is likely to be the drawing up of the Alliance's candidate list, which will determine the make-up of the parliamentary wing after the election.

Jim Anderton's foes will fight tooth-and-nail over the rankings, with a premium on top slots, given the party's poor ratings in the polls.

Labour's fear is that Anderton will be isolated and Labour will find itself dealing with a very different Alliance.

Clark may be able to do a lot about a lot of things. But she cannot do much about that.