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The storm that flooded Northland this week is more rare than first thought - as much as a one-in-150-years event in some areas.
It was initially thought to have been a downpour that might be expected about once in every 50 years.
The storm was moving over Coromandel and Bay of Plenty this morning, but MetService said the worst of the weather was now over.
Leading climate scientist Dr Jim Salinger said today that based on statistical models, the intense rainfall in Northland was the kind of event that occurred only once in more than 100 years.
"For Whangarei Airport for the 24 hours we are looking at greater than a 125-year event," said Dr Salinger, of the National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research.
Over a two day period, for east Whangarei it was at least 150 years; Te Arai Point near Mangawhai, 150 years; and for Kerikeri, for one day, more than 125 years, and for two days, more than 150 years.
While based on past-climate data, Northland had suffered a one-in-more-than-100-years deluge, Dr Salinger said: "As the climate warms, this is the sort of thing we expect to see more often."
He added: "As climate warming occurs, the atmosphere can hold more moisture and therefore more rain falls and therefore what we have thought of under past-climate data as one-in-100 or more reduces and might be one-in-50 years or 1-in-20 years."
He said the February 2004 storm that flooded Manawatu did not produce as much rain in such a short period.
Storm easing
MetService said this morning that the heavy rain had now finished for Auckland and the Nelson Ranges and was easing in the Coromandel Peninsula. It should ease during the day in Bay of Plenty and this evening for northern Gisborne.
However, the Tairua to Whitianga Road was closed due to surface flooding.
Meanwhile, the flood waters were receding in Northland and the clean-up operation was under way.
About 150 people spent last night in welfare centres after flooding left roads and buildings washed away and cut power and phone services in some areas.
Telecom said it restored all main line phone and internet services to customers in the Far North overnight, including working through the night to repair a damaged fibre optic cable under flood waters at the Stone Store Bridge in Kerikeri.
Teenager
The flooding yesterday almost cost a Northland teenager her life.
Cynthia Kenny, 14, clung for her life, shivering in a tree after capsizing while kayaking in the Kawakawa inlet.
Below her, 2m-high waters gushed past as firefighters rushed frantically to save her.
"It was touch and go. She would have been washed away if we did not get to her in time," said fireman Brent Webb.
Mr Webb tied a rope to the Haruru teenager and told her to use the relay line to make her way back.
"She was really quiet and very scared - it was probably the cold water and shock," he said.
"I told her, 'You know how to use the monkey bars at school, don't you?' and she nodded."
Cynthia managed to get back safely to firefighters who covered her in jackets and blankets.
"We gave her a cup of soup. She was cold but okay."
Slips
Mr Webb said last night that firefighters throughout the area had been called out to dozens of incidents, mainly dealing with fallen trees and slips.
"We were trying to clear the road on Opua Hill and there were trees falling all over the place. One fell on the [fire] truck and nearly pushed it over, so we decided to call it a day there."
Up to 450mm of rain fell in 36 hours in parts of Northland - the equivalent of three months' rain - causing chaos and shutting off much of the region.
Climate scientist Jim Salinger, of the National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research, said figures indicated a one-in-50-year event.
Dr Salinger said a dry summer in Northland probably exacerbated the problems.
"You're initially getting the rain falling on dry soil so it's not absorbing, but after 120 or 150mm the soil is full and can't take any more water so that's why you've got the huge flooding."
In Greater Auckland more than 3000 houses in Northcote, Te Atatu, Waiheke and Kaukapakapa lost power as wind blew debris on to power lines.
Whangaparaoa Peninsula recorded 123.8mm in the 24 hours to 8pm.
Trapped on roof
In Northland, a man and his children were last night trapped on their roof at Punaruku on the Old Russell Rd after flooding cut off their home.
The Coastguard was planning to rescue them when the tide went out.
Northland emergency operating centre spokesman Jason Dawson described Kawakawa as "a bit of an island" after the storm, and the rest of the region did not fare much better.
Kawakawa Primary principal Peter Witana said: "It has been unbelievable. I have seen roads peeled away by the flooding.
"I passed what is now a lake with a tractor in the middle, a flashing light at its top the only thing above the waterline. I have seen frantic farmers trying to get to their stock."
Torrential rainfall forced the Kawakawa school's closure because the flooding prevented many teachers and pupils from leaving their homes.
Mr Witana's attempts to collect his daughter from Whangarei High School after buses could not get her home were also frustrated.
He was turned away north of Whangarei, as floods were blocking roads into the region's largest city.
Yesterday's rainfall and flooding were the worst he had experienced in 13 years in the area.
Haruru Falls Resort
Haruru Falls Resort owner Jan Gerritsen-Molloy fought back tears last night as she described how floodwaters had all but destroyed her home and business of nine years.
The resort was last night under nearly 2m of water after the Waitangi River burst its banks.
Mrs Gerritsen-Molloy said four of the resort's 28 units remained intact - four others were crushed by a landslide and washed away and the rest were "totally flooded".
The river, which is usually about 100m from the resort's reception area, was lapping the front door.
"We think it's about 3m above the high-tide mark," Mrs Gerritsen-Molloy said. "The whole property is one big river.
"Our jetty was washed away along with all our kayaks. You can't see the swimming pool any more, but I can see our trampoline floating out there."
About 20 people at a conference had to be evacuated from the resort. All were taken to nearby properties.
Mrs Gerritsen-Molloy said her husband, Henry, who has been at the resort for 21 years, said the flooding was worse than Cyclone Bola in 1988.
"It's just absolutely devastating; this is our home and our livelihood," she said.
Emergency services last night managed to reach a kidney dialysis patient isolated without power or phone services at home in Waikare Inlet in the Bay of Islands.
Without electricity, he could not operate his home dialysis machine.
St John operations manager Donna Austin said the man had been told to wait on his roof until a helicopter could pick him up.
Medical supplies
Medical supplies were also dropped from a helicopter to a cancer patient at Whananaki South last night.
Far North District Council spokesman Rick McCall said more than 250mm of rain had soaked the region by noon yesterday.
About 200 vehicles had been stranded on State Highway 10, and the Fire Service had sent extra resources to help Bay of Islands rescue services.
Haruru Falls Motor Inn manager Kevin Small woke to see surface water across the campground. "But within two hours, we had waves on the campsite.
"People who have been here 20 years or more say they have never seen anything like it - the volume of water coming off the falls, and the effects."
By late afternoon, Mr Small's campground was flooded "three-quarters of the way up the ablution block door", three caravans had to be tied down, and one guest had to be rescued from rocks in the river below the falls after trying to retrieve untethered kayaks.
Kerikeri resident Bruce Stevenson - who lives near the area's famous stone bridge - said the rain began to ease late afternoon, but water was "still piling over the bridge on every point" in the hour before high tide at 5pm.
Russell remained without power last night and Paihia was isolated by 23 slips on the road from the south into the town.
Forecast for the weekend:
The heavy downpours experienced over the last 24 hours will be easing for the weekend, but Saturday and Sunday will be punctuated with rain.
The north of the North Island down to Waikato will have cloudy periods, with showers in the Waikato clearing this afternoon.
Heavy rain continues today in the Coromandel, Bay of Plenty and East Cape, clearing in Coromandel in the early afternoon and elsewhere this evening, with fine spells tomorrow.
Scattered rain north of Napier will clear this evening and the East Coast down to Wairarapa will become fine up tomorrow.
Over on the west coast of the North Island, from Waitomo to Wellington, today's cloudy, showery weather will turn into occasional rain tomorrow night.
Showers on the west coast of the South Island today will turn to rain overnight and during Saturday, with some heavy, possibly thundery falls.
The rain will spread east over the remainder of the South Island tonight and tomorrow.
Sunday brings occasional showers to most of the North Island with fine weather in the east and Wellington.
Rain continues on the west coast of the South Island, heavy at first, then mostly clearing. A few showers lingering about southern coasts but mostly fine elsewhere.
The sunshine returns to most places on Monday in time for the start of the working week.
