“The crashes are getting closer and closer together and the range of prices is becoming more and more marked.
“So you used to have a fluctuation around a $20 spread - now it’s more like $60 (between the high and low prices).”
Export log prices are at an eight-year low and many harvesting gangs are currently without work.
The stable growth area is with pruned logs, according to Turkington.
“Pruned logs per tonne is sort of sitting firmly at $200 or north of $200, it depends where it is sold to,” he said.
“Whereas the A grade, which is the predominant diet in China, is sitting in the early $100s.”
The added bonus with pruned logs was they were turned into product and then sent offshore so the “value add happens in NZ, which is another bonus”.
Turkington admitted that sheep and beef farmers with sizeable wood lots at present were not going to have available funds to prune the trees, especially when the payback was 15 or 20 years away.
But he added: “They could plant fewer trees and make sure they prune them”.
“There’s always been a market for pruned logs and there’s been relative stability over an extended period of time.
“But if you go back the last three or four years, the price has increased and the differential between the pruned logs and the unpruned logs is getting greater.”
He said while he was not a sawmill owner, the demand must be there or they would not keep putting the price up or keep ordering pruned logs if they were able to fill their files.
- RNZ