Industry optimistic on sales

By ALASTAIR SLOANE motoring editor



Carmakers expect new-vehicle sales in New Zealand this year to mirror those of last year, when 91,964 cars and commercials were registered, the best year since 1990. But they say there are signs of a blip in fleet sales to export companies whose earnings will be affected by the strong New Zealand dollar, which is expected to go through US70c this year.

Land Transport Safety Authority figures show 70,453 new passenger cars and 21,511 commercials were sold last year, a 9.8 per cent hike on 2002.

Toyota was the sales leader, selling 18,479 units (13,601 cars, 4878 commercials) for a 20.1 per cent share of the market. It was Toyota's 16th straight year as number one.

Ford finished second with 15,336 sales (11,321 cars, 4015 commercials) for a 16.7 per cent share, and Holden was third with 14,947 (11,007 cars, 3940 commercials) for 16.3 per cent.

Mitsubishi was the only other carmaker with a double-digit slice, selling 9425 units (6709 cars, 2716 commercials) for 10.2 per cent.

Nissan was next in line with overall sales of 6065 vehicles for 6.6 per cent, followed by Mazda with 4762 sales (5.2 per cent) and Honda with 4655 (5.1 per cent).

Volkswagen led the Europeans with 1900 sales (1539 cars, 361 commercials) for 2.1 per cent. But BMW was the most popular European in the passenger car market with 1793 sales for 1.9 per cent.

The 2002 European leader Peugeot finished last year with 1331 sales for 1.4 per cent. The French carmaker will challenge for the top spot this year, after the arrival of its 406 replacement, the 407 sedan and wagon.

Mercedes-Benz broke through the 1000-car barrier for the first time, selling 1099 cars and 264 commercials for 1.5 per cent. Fellow German Audi inched its way towards the 1000-sales mark with 897 units for 1.0 per cent.

Most of the carmakers are lining up new models this year. Toyota will be pushing sales of its Avensis station wagon, the first European-built vehicle it has imported, and its petrol-electric Prius.

Ford is counting on the small hatchback Fiesta and four-wheel-drive Australian-built Territory. Holden is pushing its 50th anniversary range along with new niche models. Mazda has its new Mazda3, the first new-vehicle launch of the year. Nissan is getting behind its new Maxima.

VW has the people-mover Touran, Golf 5 and luxury Phaeton saloon. BMW is lining up the 6-Series coupe and cabriolet, four-wheel-drive X3, 1-Series and convertible Mini Cooper. Mercedes-Benz has the new SLK. Audi is polishing the new A3. Later in the year comes the 407 Peugeot.

Paul Carroll, the general manager of new vehicles for industry leader Toyota, expects strong sales, especially in the first six months.

"We think that the market will be similar to last year," he said. "We are already seeing increased demand from rental companies, however we expect this will be offset to some degree by the value of the dollar continuing to impact on the export industry.

Carroll said among the the highlights for Toyota last year "were the 22nd successive year of the Hilux being the number one light truck and the new Lexus RX330 having a three-month waiting list."

Ford managing director Richard Matheson said he expected this year to be "even more competitive than last year, with the real possibility that the industry will be as buoyant as the record 2003 result. We are rising to meet this challenge and aim to be in a position to make a real impression in the marketplace throughout 2004 and beyond".

John Leighton, managing director of Mitsubishi: "For 2004 the economic indicators are strong and, barring some unforeseen circumstance, we anticipate the total market for new vehicles will again exceed 90,000 sales."

Graeme Seymour, managing director of Honda: "2003 was the year that we stepped away from boosting volume with rental company sales to reinforce our price promise which is increasingly understood by both private and company buyers. The rise in resale values has proved the concept.

"As a result, the one-by-one sales increased by 22 per cent on 2002 and we are confident that 2004 will bring many new customers to Honda."

Peter Merie, sales and marketing manager Nissan: "With a record number of new cars sold in 2003 driven as much by a flood of new models as the general economy, we anticipate that the market for 2004 will be a little less heated.

"We expect the large car segment to continue its strong growth. The new Maxima has got off to a very strong start.

"With nearly 300 cars sold, December was the highest ever month for Maxima sales."

Peter Aitken, managing director Mazda: "We forecast the market to reach 90,000 units for 2004. The market is now capable of sustaining levels of 90,000 to 100,000 new vehicles as they have reduced in real terms 35 per cent in the past decade.

"While there are signs the export sector may be in for some buffeting in the 12 months ahead due to the strength of the Kiwi, we anticipate the internal sector of the economy will continue to grow."

Dean Sheed, general manager VW: "We see the total passenger market staying around the 70,000 unit mark and the European market around 14 per cent of that, or about 9000-9500 units.

"The commercial market will stay at carryover levels as well as the economy flattens out. 2003 was dominated by the mass market brands launching new product. We expect 2004 to be more evenly split with new European product driving the customer choice even further."

Glynn Tulloch, general manager Audi: "The outlook in 2004 is positive for the fourth straight year of record sales in New Zealand. Audi sales were up by 14 per cent in 2003 in a luxury car market that grew by only 5 per cent over an admittedly healthy 2002. Demand for luxury goods across all product and service categories continues to grow."

Martyn Dawson, general manager Mercedes-Benz: "The signs for another strong luxury sales year in 2004 are extremely positive. This year our dealer network will begin building new premises in Dunedin, Christchurch and Auckland to prepare for the next product offensive, which starts with the introduction of the new SLK in the last quarter."

Mark McCutcheon, marketing manager BMW: "The company has been the luxury market leader for many years and finished 2003 as the brand of car most luxury buyers chose to purchase.

"We have seen very strong interest from customers. Ongoing demand in this segment, particularly for the new 6-Series, suggests this is a trend that is likely to continue."

Allbert van Ham, public affairs Holden: "The company has almost doubled its volume over the last five years [7848 units in 1999] and improved its total market share from a little under 11 per cent to 16.3 per cent in 2003. Our outlook this year is positive for a continuation of a robust market. But the strength of the dollar, export receipts, the drought and the projected slowdown in the housing market all have the capacity to blunt last year's high."