In defence of a little diversity

By GEOFF CUMMINGS

Rosehill College principal Bali Haque tore up his prizegiving speech last week, so incensed was he by Winston Peters' latest attack on immigration. Instead of the traditional recap on the year's achievements, the speech became a vigorous defence of diversity and an attack on racism and cultural stereotyping.

Peters' claims that the wholesale replacement of New Zealand's population with Third World migrants will bring the kind of ethnic violence seen in Kosovo, Sri Lanka and Northern Ireland dismayed the Pakistani migrant.

"As the principal of a multicultural school who has lived in New Zealand for 22 years, it really got to me."

In his end-of-year speech, he spoke of the humbling experience of listening to migrant students stand in front of school assemblies and speak in English about life in their countries of origin. They were from Germany, Thailand, Korea, Japan and China.

"We connected with these people. It was great."

He suspects not every parent in the audience agreed but says their sons and daughters are richer for the cosmopolitan approach New Zealand has adopted.

Life in South Auckland's multicultural communities bears no comparison to the Balkans and other hotbeds of ethnic and religious conflict, says Haque. He hears all about the pressures that increased migration is placing on schools in his role as president of the Secondary Principals' Association.

"There are ethnic tensions at some schools, but you have to expect that as different groups adjust. And there are resourcing issues with students who need extra help with English."

But the benefits of diversity far outweigh the pressures, he says. "There are so many positives we can be enriched by."

As a tiny trading nation with falling birth rates, New Zealand stands to gain much from immigration, he says, but it is not just about economics.

"It is about the humanity of living with, enjoying and understanding different cultures, religions and world perspectives. If you can get people communicating effectively, lots of the problems are at least minimised." Haque says immigration is part of a wider population issue which New Zealanders should be debating. "The saddest thing about this is that it's taken somebody like Winston Peters to get the debate going.

"It should not be couched in the context he has put it in. My view is that his is a racist approach."

Almost everybody, from politicians to academics, agrees that we need a debate about migration and its impacts on the New Zealand of tomorrow, with the aim of reaching some consensus.

But how to tackle an amorphous blob like migration, which is subject to variables we can't control such as international labour markets, economic cycles and terrorism?

The issues being raised by Peters - which clearly reflect ongoing public anxiety - are the same as those he raised in the early 1990s, when policy changes ushered in large numbers of migrants from the Asian region. They were flagged as early as the mid-1980s, when the Labour Government embraced immigration as a tool of economic growth in the face of falling birth-rates and net migration losses.

We can't say we weren't warned about the implications of a skills-based policy but the far-reaching changes were introduced with little debate.

Former Immigration Minister Roger Maxwell says the points system implemented under his watch drew little attention until the surge in Asian migrants began to affect house prices and schools in 1994.

"The public is notoriously disinterested in things that don't command their immediate attention," says Maxwell, one of several former immigration ministers who went on to work as immigration consultants.

"We under-estimated just how many highly skilled people would want to come to New Zealand and were prepared to do so, come hell or high water."

He admits the National Government was shy about discussing immigration publicly. He recalls being rebuked for flagging a possible population target of five million at a conference in Australia.

"It's unfortunate that migration hasn't been debated in a balanced and non-political way - and it would be difficult to do so at all in the current climate."

The policy of using immigration to make up for labour shortfalls and raise living standards is now locked in and Victoria University sociologist Dr David Pearson says the alternatives are limited, given population trends, an internationalised skilled labour market and increasing trading arrangements with other countries.

"It's simply wrong to suggest that we can somehow have Fortress New Zealand where people coming in are strictly monitored according to some old-fashioned criteria," says Pearson, a specialist in ethnicity issues.

"Certain things are going to happen and there's absolutely nothing we can do about it."

He bemoans the lack of explanation and public debate about immigration over the past 20 years "except at times of moral panic". There's been a reluctance to explain the rationale for such significant policy shifts or to promote the benefits of increased international linkages. In the vacuum, Peters has been free to exploit "populist fears, anxieties and downright ignorance" whenever there is a surge in arrivals.

The New Zealand First leader can point to policy flaws which allow bogus job offers, fraud and other scams. He rails about the impacts on the welfare system, schools and house prices and the overcrowding on Auckland's ageing buses. And he can plead concern for the long-term impacts on New Zealand society.

But the claims that mass immigration will take New Zealand towards "Balkanisation" and that Asians will replace Europeans as a majority are dismissed by Population Association president Mansoor Khawaja, chief demographer at Statistics NZ.

Peters said in July that 93 per cent of immigrants were Asian. Excluding New Zealanders returning home, there were 38,000 long-term arrivals from the Asian region from a total of 70,000 in the year to September 30.

Historically, population gain from migration fluctuates wildly and averages only 5000 a year. This year's surge, a net gain of 37,000, follows six years of net losses.

A decade of increased migration from the Asian region has seen the "Asian" population double to 240,000, or 6.5 per cent of the total population. It is forecast to reach 380,000 by 2016, or 9 per cent.

Khawaja concedes that the projections, based on an average net gain of 4000 a year from the region, appear conservative and are being revised.

But for Peters' claim of a majority Asian population by the 2030s to be proved correct, it will take more than 300,000 arrivals a year from the region for the next 30 years, he says.

Over that timeframe, New Zealand's population is predicted to grow only slowly to peak at 4.8 million.

Khawaja says it's impossible to predict the ethnic balance of New Zealand's population by then. Higher birth rates mean greater proportions will be Maori and Pacific Islanders. Intermarriage will have a marked effect on diversity - "it's the ethnic melting pot". But Europeans should still form the biggest ethnic group.

He says there's a myth that the Asian population will explode through natural increase. Birth rates among the skilled migrants New Zealand is admitting are similar to European levels.

He believes a population conference would clarify the challenges facing the country. In about 30 years deaths will begin to exceed births so without migration, population will decline.

European countries are facing similar issues of historically low fertility and increasingly seeking migrants to plug skill gaps. New Zealand can therefore no longer look to them as major sources of migrants.

The long-term forecasts may differ starkly from Peters' claims but concerns about the impacts of growing diversity are still valid. National figures belie the extent of change in Auckland, where two-thirds of migrants settle. Here, the picture is confused by the huge growth in international education which adds up to 80,000 foreign students attending language courses and tertiary studies at any one time.

As Peters says, "huge swathes" of Auckland are already migrant communities and he can point to ethnic clashes, such as the street fight involving Somalis and Pacific Islanders in Owairaka in January, when a Tongan man was killed.

Such incidents are isolated. But sociologists warn that the potential remains for such rivalries as long as there are ethnic enclaves of high unemployment and deprivation.

The challenge for governments is to put in place policies to ensure Peters' extremist scenarios are not fulfilled. But New Zealand continues to lag behind other countries in providing post-settlement assistance, says Associate Professor Andrew Trlin of Massey University, and this is where the debate should be focused.

Governments for the past 10 years have concentrated on regulating the number and type of migrants, says Trlin, director of a research project monitoring the experiences of recent migrants. Post-settlement policies which might ease fears of future friction have been largely ignored.

He blames prevailing economic liberalism - "There is the view that people who meet our entry requirements should be able to fend for themselves."

He says New Zealand needs a post-arrival policy to ease migrants into jobs and communities and an ethnic relations policy to promote tolerance and understanding.

Despite progress by the current Government, more help is needed in housing, education, healthcare and, most importantly, employment.

Trlin says the Massey research has found that English is only one barrier to employment. Prejudice and discrimination remain.

"Employers call it risk aversion. They cite concern about how clients and staff will react.

"How do we change? It will take a long process of education and getting people familiar with each other through interaction."

An ethnic affairs policy would help to build bridges between migrants and host communities. Trlin says ethnic groups must be made to feel valued through community activities and to maintain cultural and religious traditions.

"It's not outlandishly different to what we've done in the past. Forty years ago, there was shock at the waves of Pacific Islanders, now we welcome them. It's likely to be the same in 40 years for Koreans and Chinese."

Professor Richard Bedford, head of migration research at Waikato University, says it's timely that we debate the significant shifts in ethnicity and population age.

He says there are fresh policy issues to consider, including the growing threat to border security posed by people-smuggling.

Potential remains for a Maori backlash against immigration if jobs and access to land and services become issues.

One issue he says we'll never reach consensus on is an ideal population size.

"Once you define an optimum population it's optimum in relation to a certain way you use resources, certain levels of consumption, certain attitudes about how people should live.

"It becomes almost a non-issue in New Zealand where your population through natural increase is growing very slowly and [growth] will be even less rapid over the next 50 years."

But Bedford says debates about migration and population need to be revisited often.

Immigration Minister Lianne Dalziel hopes a national conference to discuss the issues will be possible next year.

She agrees that no one wants a repeat of the 1997 talkfest on population - largely triggered by Peters' anti-immigration campaign before the 1996 election. Its most tangible outcome is the ministerial advisory group on immigration that Dalziel set up.

She hopes a more focused conference can take place, zeroing in on "what the nature of our population is going to be" and plotting "the next phase in immigration policy".

Discussion must be founded on quality research. "Some of the information we're getting at the moment about the changing make-up of the population is not based on good quality advice."

Dalziel denies that the recent clampdown on immigration -raising both the points system and the English language requirement - is an attempt to take the heat out of the debate or a response to Peters. She says the heightened English language requirement follows studies confirming that migrants with limited English struggle to get jobs and has been planned since April.

She says the requirement will allow her to lower the points bar for general skills migrants, possibly next month.

"The numbers won't go down as a result of the changes made this week. The same number of people will be coming in and we're not going to be excluding people from particular countries."

Herald feature: Immigration