KEY POINTS:
Seachange and Sir Slick are marvellous racehorses but there is little value to be had in backing them in separate races at Te Rapa today.
The horses to run the trifecta with the pair look equally obvious, so watch and enjoy these two equine athletes and look for
the betting value in the supporting races.
There are a few and Indian Wells (No4, R10) could be one of them. It wasn't much of a line-up he beat at Trentham a couple of weeks ago, but there was a lot to like about the victory, particularly the way he kept winding up right to the finish. He's facing much better opposition but hasn't finished winning yet.
There are plenty of chances in Race 2 and there might be some each-way value in Capacia (No13). The field was only small, but she covered a lot of extra ground when beaten favourite at Rotorua last start. A big plus here is that she showed on debut the time before that she can handle Te Rapa by coming from a long way back to finish second. The way she races the 1600m is going to suit her. Papas Revolution (No6) did well to be beaten only a pencil line here on debut.
That win by Chase The Sun (No4, R3) on the first day was no fluke. He has always looked the goods and could charge straight through the classes from this point. The seven-day backup is the only slight negative, but he's good enough to be given the benefit of doubt on that one. This is a massive drop back in class for Genuine Offer (No1) and the 2kg claim is going to be a big benefit.
Race 4 is a smallish field, but it doesn't lack chances. Mary Ellen (No6) and Belle Joie (No1) are among the better possibilities. That wasn't a bad effort of Mary Ellen's in finishing seventh behind today's rival Always Dreaming at Trentham. The way the 'watered' track played was against her and she should be better suited here. Belle Joie has speed, will be well suited to receiving 2kg off her 58kg and the Te Rapa track will probably better suit her front-running style. This looks to be a value trifecta race.
The $150,000 Sir Tristram Fillies Classic - what a beaut race. If you're taking a trifecta it's difficult to know what to leave out. Because of the barrier draws, which can be crucial over 2000m at Te Rapa, Kaatoon (No4, R5) looks the safest trifecta anchor. Take one trifecta coupling her up with the value runners like Exquisite (No8), Lanbrae (No11) and Calatrava (No14) and another using the favoured three or four in betting.
If you can get two of those value runners in the trifecta you could be up for some decent money. And watch the replay of this race half a dozen times because it's going to be one of the real form races for the next few months.
Italienne (No7, R8) has struck a race that will suit her more than the special conditions 1600m event at Ellerslie on Karaka Million day. She drew wide there, got back as a result and made ground to be less than five lengths off the dashing Avancer. She looks a staying type and the jump from 1600m to 2000m plays in her favour.
Shannon Doyle, who had a spell away from race riding, should have a huge day at Awapuni only a week after his comeback.
John Wheeler's apprentice has a number of strong winning chances, the first being the impressive Not Tonite (No3, R4). The No10 barrier draw is a slight disadvantage over the 1200m, but if Doyle can work his magic, Not Tonite should go close.
Doyle's 2kg allowance will be a big assist for 3-year-old filly Princess Annaliese (No2, R8) when she takes on the older horses over 1600m. She was only 3.5 lengths from Keepa Cruisin in the Desert Gold Stakes and this is a fair way down in class from that.
Nitty Gritty (No2, R7) and Smoking Chimneys (No6, R6) are two further strong winning chances for Doyle at the Manawatu meeting.