KEY POINTS:
Seachange and the $250,000 Telegraph Handicap still provide the best opportunity at Trentham today.
The $3 the TAB was offering on Final Field was pretty good value and with the bookies declaring they felt that was the outstanding mare's true price, even an avalanche of money on win and place tote this afternoon may not be enough to bring her down.
The value comes from (1) sheer class (2) absolute reliability - when did you last see her throw in a bad one? - and (3) you know for certain she is on the way up whereas a couple of those who have gone through races like the Concorde and Railway might have reached their plateau last start.
That said, the 58kg does not make it easy. It is a good horse's weight - but then remember how much better than good she is.
The best approach might be a three-pronged attack. Backing her to win, standing her out to win in trifectas and a boxed trifecta with a handful of others. The appeal of that last option is that if she's beaten into second or third, you'll get good value.
The others: Well, the Railway 1 - 3 stablemate pairing of Imananabaa and Brianna are trifecta musts because their finishing efforts will be well suited to Trentham and Accardo is another must-include.
Those three are on one level and the next slight step down you've got Pinsoir, Irlanda, stablemates Kay's Awake and Clifton Prince and possibly something like Maximum Star if he got the right drag.
Recommended trifecta: To win: Seachange. Second: Brianna, Imananabaa, Accardo, Pinsoir and Irlanda. Third: add Kay's Awake, Clifton Prince and Maximum Star to the horses for second.
It's a day on which if you get it right, the grocery bill shouldn't be hard to cover.
Xcellent (No 1, R8) should just win the Trentham Stakes. A few Doubting Thomases will say he looked a certainty last time and got beaten by Sir Slick, but it's almost impossible to find a fishhook today. For such a small field the trifecta might actually be tricky. Everswindell (No 6) is prepping for next week's Wellington Cup and will be running on strongly late. It may pay to take not too much notice of Kerry O'Reilly's (No 3) beaten performance in the City Of Auckland Cup last start. Three Chimneys (No 5) might give cheek in the trifecta sense.
If Plantinum Toulouse (No 1, R1) starts in the first rather than R2, and indications were that he would, then the opener is a no-bet affair.
Better value might come in Race 2 with northerner Indian Wells (No 5). To quote his in-form rider David Walsh, he's a winner waiting to happen and only a couple of niggling things going wrong in his past couple of starts have prevented a win. King Of The Jungle (No 7) looked pretty good on debut.
Not Nonite, (No 11, R2) looked good winning easily fresh from a break two starts back then he got caught wide from the outside No 11 barrier at Awapuni. With High Priest (No 5) engaged the value may be there for Not Nonite. Dropback horse Mehrtens (No 2) should be included in trifectas.
There were still 16 juveniles left in the $100,000 Wakefield Challenge Stakes yesterday and it looks a nightmare for punters. Getting the right run will be crucial. Because of the barrier draw there might be a bit of value around Reuben Thorn (No 1, R4). He has to overcome barrier 15, but he has Opie Bosson to help him do it. Outside of that in an impossible race, Fully Fledged (No 2) is a must after running off at Ellerslie, Lady Alberton (No 9) was brave last time and Pure Strike (No 13) ran on strongly at Taupo.
The field for Race 5 is small, but interesting. Pams Pompellier (No 4) was stylish winning at Ellerslie last time, but goes up 2.5kg. That puts her on the same level as Marty Boy (No 3). Go back three starts and Marty Boy was only 1.75 lengths off Alonzo at Tauranga, which is wonderful form for this. He has not had the best luck since and senior rider Mark Du Plessis jumps aboard for this one.
Sterling Prince (No 7, R6) is one of the country's big improvers. This won't be easy, but remember he finished only a short neck and a long neck off Fiscal Madness and Sir Slick in the Rich Hill Mile last time. He can really wind up and Trentham will suit him. Fiscal Madness (No 1) meets him 2kg worse this time, but still rates highly and Ombre Rose (No 4) and Final Reality (No 3) are chances.
The first meeting of Alamosa (No 1, R7) and Bruxaar (No 4) will be interesting. Alamosa is the been-there-done-that horse and Bruxaar is the new boy. Add in The Pooka (No 2) coming back from a short break and you've got a very confusing race.
At Avondale, Pierre Joseph (No 3, R3) and Media One (No 2) face off in a fascinating clash early in the programme. Media One probably should have won when second last start, but he is going to have a fight on his hands to beat Pierre Joseph. Should be a quinella forever.
Leadership (No 5, R7) and Magic Tryst (No 8) come up with a similar clash later.
