KEY POINTS:
The proponents of the second-up theory will be running for cover, but if you use simply form then Dashing Donna looks one of the finest bets at Ellerslie this afternoon.
Dashing Donna looked a little big in condition when she paraded at Te Rapa recently for her first race after a spell. She defied that appearance by sitting wide in the running and challenging hotly before being narrowly beaten by pacemaker Bow Lane.
Sure, she is second-up and has to step out against the older horses this time - which can trip 3-year-olds up in the first half of the season - but she has so much ability on what has been seen of her so far there will be plenty prepared to risk the doubts.
You need to sort a winner out in the supporting races because the features, the Championship Stakes for the 3-year-olds and the Auckland Cup lead-up, the Cathay Pacific 2400, are wide open betting affairs. Like the $700,000 Mercedes Derby it leads into, the $100,000 Lexus Championship Stakes will be decided by luck in running - so little is there among the top six horses in the 3-year-old ranks this season.
Had IL Divo (No5, R7) drawn inside No 7, he would have been this column's top pick, and he can still win, but the No 12 gate makes the first 250m awkward. Jason Waddell is probably still going to have to press forward on him and if he gets into a one-off position before the rising turn out of the home straight, he will be a big threat. Avancer (No4) is making an increasingly bigger impression. He overcame difficulties to win against the older horses at Ellerslie last time, producing a home-straight sprint that would win better races. The chances here are endless and the real interest will come in whether Red Ruler (No6) can measure up - not in ability, because that will never be in question - but in distance and in his ability to handle this at just his fifth appearance.
Alonzo (No3, R1) is the query horse. His talent is not really in question, but generally something always gets in his way. He ran a big race at 1400m at Te Rapa when the pattern did not ideally suit back runners and repeated the effort behind Fiscal Madness and Sir Slick in the Rich Hill Mile.
That was a good run from Strengthtostrength (No4, R2) at Paeroa last start. He got back, improved on the turn and kept powering home to finish second to smart mare Alluring.
The form on paper of Primavera (No2, R4) might look ordinary, but she is a lot better mare than that. She had to cover a lot of extra ground behind The Silence Sir at Ellerslie two starts ago then got too far back in the breeders stakes at Tauherenikau, in which back runners were disadvantaged. The key here might be the step up to 2100m. Ridden nice and cold she might be able to get over the top of many of these. Sunrize (No8) is also better than his form reads.
Supanova (No5, R5) is a value runner. She had to cover extra ground when beaten last start and the time before on this track she probably should have won.
The $700,000 Stella Artois Auckland Cup lead-up could be a trap. Young Centaur (No3, R6) and Prized Touch (No8) look fine prospects, but it's important to remember they are being prepped for a tough 3200m. Include them with newcomer Tinseltown (No11), but don't be surprised if the trifecta includes Three Chimneys (No4) or stablemates Carlisle Bay (No2) and Charliehorse (No6), both of whom will be wearing blinkers.
Red Square (No6, R8) is one of those you can mark down with "forget the run" that have come out of the Wellington Cup day at Trentham. Things went wrong for him and he should be judged here on his victory the time before on January 1 on this track. Ram's Dream (No1) shouldn't be ignored. At New Plymouth, Takanini filly Vantastic (No5, R8) is going to give the others something to go beat. She has had no luck in three starts since winning and the step up to 1800m looks to be ideal for her .Vanny Fair(No4) could be an upsetter here.
Ransom Express (No4, R7) is going to be all the rage after a dashing Paeroa victory, but don't discount stablemate Reuben Thorn (No1).
