Pressures for a government of the people, by the people, for the people, have been bubbling away in Tonga for decades.
A line is now drawn between the needs of the mass of Tongans on the one hand and a very small group on the other, which controls the Government and much of the economy. The conflict is between two mutually exclusive views of the future.
The first belongs to those who would define Tonga as a personal fiefdom of an elite. That is a backward-looking and corrupt society that is afraid of progress and terrified of the future.
The alternative vision is for Tonga to develop as a vibrant society where normal democratic freedoms exist, where there is transparent law and where there are social services that aim really to cater for the real needs of all citizens.
For the elite, dissent is to be suppressed by reference to some static notion of Tongan "culture". But in recent times the cracks in the society have become fissures and the elite increasingly talks and acts as if it feels itself under siege.
Tongans have been shocked at the proposal to limit the constitution, the right to free speech and freedom of the media. This occurred after the Supreme Court had struck down a ban on Tonga's only independent newspaper, Taimi'o Tonga.
What we have seen of late are erratic and arbitrary defensive strokes, by which freedom of speech somehow gets defined as not Tongan and where it is somehow culturally correct severely to curtail media freedom and have a King who can pass ordinances beyond judicial oversight.
These are all measures of an elite that senses its own vulnerability and is making a doomed, final stand against needed change. History has many examples of the futility of this position.
In the past week I have talked to Tongan community representatives in Auckland. I have also communicated with reform leaders in Tonga. The call for substantive democratic reform has spread throughout the society and into the ranks of the nobles.
Prince Tu'ipelehake, the chairman of the Tongan Legislative Assembly, has spoken out against the proposed constitutional amendment and in favour of steps towards universal suffrage for a totally elected Parliament. In the existing Parliament, only nine of the 30 members are elected by the Tongan public. Another nine are appointed by the nobility, and 12 by the King for life.
It will come as no surprise to New Zealanders that what Tongans yearn for is investment in their resources to provide for economic development, decent education for their children, healthcare and housing.
My talks reveal that a number of influential nobles in the Tongan Parliament want to join forces with the nine elected MPs. They want to chart a path for sensible economic development and political reform to establish a modern democratic system.
Common positions are emerging. First, that Parliament should be the sovereign lawmaker and that Parliament should comprise only MPs chosen by free elections in which every Tongan adult can vote.
Second, that there be a fair taxation system under which all pay their fair share.
Third, the creation of an effective, non-corrupt civil service responsible to the people through ministers appointed by Parliament.
Fourthly, ensuring that public resources are not controlled and manipulated by a self-appointed elite.
Fifthly, that the rule of law underpin the constitutional system.
Sixthly, to have the Army and police controlled by an appropriate minister responsible to Parliament.
New Zealand should support the nobles and the elected representatives of Tonga's Parliament in their proposals to manage the inevitable changes that lie ahead for that society.
New Zealand, as part of a Commonwealth or United Nations programme, in agreement with the representatives of Tonga, could assist a Tongan transitional authority with a public information campaign on the steps to representative government, including the holding of elections.
We could also help during the transitional phase, defined and directed by Tongan representatives, by strengthening the country's public service.
Our development aid programme has geared itself to change. It was a programme that was hit and miss. There is now a more focused and coherent country strategy, aimed at developing a sound economy and infrastructure and reforming the operations of the public services.
What most Tongans want is what most people anywhere want - a fair go in a free society.
Change is already occurring in Tonga. New Zealand is in a position to offer the movement for reform constructive help to ensure an orderly and effective transition to a more democratic system that will serve the needs of the people of Tonga.
* Matt Robson, a Progressive Coalition MP, is a former Associate Minister of Foreign Affairs.
Herald Feature: Tonga
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<i>Matt Robson:</i> People deserve fair go for all in a free society
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