Matt McCarten: Super Mayor poll show Brown ahead

Up to now there's been a seemingly certain inevitability that the new Mayor of the Supercity would be John Banks. But this week a polling result from UMR shattered that illusion.

The poll showed Manukau Mayor Len Brown outpolling Banks by 35 per cent to 34. This is an extraordinary result, given the fact that Brown was polling at single figures in previous polls.

Business groups and political right-wingers want a strong, autocratic leader to implement their agenda. That's why the Minister of Local Government, Rodney Hide, and the National Party want to invest the mayoralty with all sorts of executive powers, such as appointing his or her own deputy mayor, parcelling out plum committee jobs and even introducing the city budget and other major decisions for rubber stamping by the new council. Under a business model, this makes sense.

But in a political world, it is effectively an elected dictatorship, similar to the method by which ancient Rome appointed its emperors.

Of course, all this is fine for the right wing as they assume one of their own will get the job. But the poll foreshadows for the first time a real possibility that a left-winger might win the new mayoralty.

The other notable finding in the poll was that another contender, Auckland Regional Council chairman Mike Lee, gained 18 per cent against Banks. In an earlier poll Lee was on 1 per cent.

What is not generally known is that the UMR is the Labour Party's polling company. It has been polling Aucklanders for months about how to promote Brown as an alternative to Banks. Clearly its strategy of linking Banks with Hide and the privatisation of assets has been successful and Banks' poll ratings have consequently taken a hit.

The timing of the UMR poll is no accident and is two-fold: first, to show that Banks has lost his lead. And second to position Brown as the inevitable challenger in the hope that other pretenders to the throne will be scared off.

While neither Brown nor Lee has confirmed their nominations, they are seen as the main contenders within the Labour Party and centre-left circles.

Tactically it is in Brown's interest to try to knock Lee out of the contest early. But I suggest they are getting a bit ahead of themselves as the structure of the Supercity won't even be determined until the end of the year. There is plenty of water to run under the bridge before these sorts of presumptions should be made.

While Brown has the support of many of the Labour national hierarchy, their party local support is split. Brown needs to quickly create the impression that he is the standard-bearer for the left. It is no accident that letters to the editor appeared in several publications the day after the poll announcement, anointing Brown as the next mayor. Interestingly, they were signed by active Labour Party supporters.

Lee's strength is that he has strong support among the Greens, Maori Party and left political activists, Grey Power, as well as many traditional conservatives. While Lee hasn't the profile of a city mayor, he has been chair of the Auckland Regional Council for two terms, as opposed to Brown who is only halfway through his first term as Manukau mayor.

What this poll does make clear is that Banks is struggling to convince two-thirds of the regional voters in Auckland that he should be the Super Mayor. The other significant finding is that at this stage the only two people able to beat him are Brown or Lee. By early next year, the centre-left will consolidate around one or the other.

It is important that both these individuals spend the next few months consulting the larger community with their ideas and vision. This will allow sufficient time for the two-thirds of voters who don't support Banks to better assess who is the best candidate to win the mayoralty and to lead the new Supercity.