KEY POINTS:
Since the Labour Party got a hammering in the May opinion polls, they recovered slightly in last week's polls, although they are still a long way behind National.
But if you toss in the Labour allies, the Green Party and Jim Anderton, it narrows the gap into single figures. If I was a Labour Party hack trying to spin good news from appalling poll ratings, I could claim that if Winston Peters managed to get over the 5 per cent threshold, which is now quite possible given that New Zealand First is consistently rating over 3 per cent, then it narrows it into a margin of error. If I was completely shameless, I could stretch desperate hope even further and claim that if the Maori Party won between four and seven of the Maori seats, then Labour could win back the Treasury benches next year with their help.
I'm always amazed that the political commentary still has a first-past-the-post mindset, reporting only polls on the basis of the gap between National and Labour. It would be more helpful to the public if they also commented on the relative combined totals of the centre-left and centre-right blocs. After all, that's how the next government will be formed.
One thing is very clear: the minor parties are becoming more important.
It will be difficult for Labour to pull back National's lead before the next election, but it's fair to bet that Clark will be able to close the gap to a large extent.
You can see her determination in returning for a fourth term by her very public role during the Muliaga family tragedy. Actions like this should reverse the trend of blue-collar workers drifting over to National.
With eight parties currently in Parliament and independents Taito Phillip Field and Gordon Copeland breaking away to form separate parties, it's going to be an interesting year as the minor players jockey for position. After the last election, remember how Labour claimed they had to form a government with New Zealand First and United Future because they were more stable coalition partners than the Green Party and the Maori Party? Time has proven that the opposite has been true. The Green and Maori parties have the most stable parties in Parliament, with consistent messages and disciplined caucuses.
Even with a hotly-contested election for a new co-leader after Rod Donald's death, there has been no deep fallout in the Greens. This is reinforced by the fact that Russel Norman was re-elected unopposed at their recent conference in Nelson. But allowing National's Nick Smith to bulldoze his way into their conference exposes their continuing political naivety. Their public posturing that the Greens might consider National as a real coalition option is more about their anger that Labour takes them for granted rather than any real conviction that there is any common ground between the Greens and National. The Maori Party, justifiably, can feel some grievance that the same Greens who publicly attack them for even meeting with the National leaders invite a National Party MP to their own conference.
The Maori Party has been the greatest success story among all the minor parties. There's a real possibility that both the Green Party and the Maori Party will increase their seats at the next election, albeit at the expense of the Labour Party. In fact, Labour won't get back without both of these parties.
The ructions within New Zealand First have been an embarrassment to Peters who seems to be enjoying his role as Foreign Minister. But whenever he's offshore, his MPs and officials seem to get into public spats. Even though I have, up until now, assumed that New Zealand First didn't have a chance of getting over the 5 per cent threshold at the next election, I may have been a little hasty. If Labour's overall vote drops at the next election, Peters may be able to clip enough support off them to get into Parliament once more.
Anderton, of course, has predictably announced this week that he has no intention of retiring, and will no doubt be returned in Wagram although he has no chance of getting anyone else in with him. But, as long as Clark is Prime Minister, there will always be a place for him next to her.
The surprising disaster has been Peter Dunne's United Future, with Copeland jumping ship last month. Copeland's subsequent antics have been an embarrassment to everyone in Parliament. Even the centre-right parties will be secretly relieved when he is dumped at the next election.
Rodney Hide and Act have really been sidelined and ignored. National is clearly next year's choice for the right-wing vote. And Hide and the remnants of Act will be further sidelined. Hide's focus will be to win his seat back, which will allow him options for the future.
The verdict on Field is still out at the moment. If his case does go to court, which is extremely likely, then I can't see how he will be able to lead a new party at the next election. The rest of the parties will quietly contain him as much as they can and await his inevitable demise next year.
So while the money has to be on National coasting to victory next year because of their enormous lead in current opinion polls, no one in their right mind will write off Clark.
And the unpredictability of the minor parties may well give her the numbers to pull off a fourth term. Key is smart enough to know that the next election is still anyone's game, despite the polls.
