Matt McCarten: National's failure was on several Key fronts

After every campaign a party does an analysis of their performance. I suspect the National Party would rather not, given its humiliation in Mt Albert. So I'll do it for them.

They didn't take the by-election seriously

Despite what the Nats said after the by-election, their internal polls (and Labour's) at the start of the campaign showed they had a chance of winning. At the very least, the campaign could have been competitive. After all, their general election candidate got 30 per cent of the electorate vote. The National Party list vote was 36 per cent, just 2500 short of Labour's. John Key and his party have consistently polled over 50 per cent since then. If National can win Auckland Central, it could have taken Mt Albert. Instead it ran the worst by-election in living memory and got the worst result in living memory.

Melissa Lee should not have been their candidate

Key picked Lee. He has no excuse. His senior ministers such as Murray McCully and Stephen Joyce are experienced campaigners and would have known she wasn't up to it. By-elections are brutal experiences and Lee has never even been an electorate candidate. If you are running a novice, at least surround them with minders. Lee has a media background and knows to stick to a script. But it's clear she didn't have one. Astoundingly, she got worse as the campaign progressed. Next time, don't go for the superficial, go for competence.

Jonathan Coleman should not have been the campaign manager

By-elections need seasoned management. It seems National's whole campaign team were newbies. Why is a minister doing what the party organisation is supposed to do? Where were the old hands? Did they step away because they knew Key's choice was a disaster waiting to happen? Is there something more sinister to Bill English and his allies not showing up?

They botched the motorway issue

Any chance National had of winning ended when Lee and her ministerial colleagues were saying contradictory things about the new motorway. The motorway was always going to be a problem so National might as well have gone on the front foot and made their weakness a strength. Lee should have said they were doing the right thing by having a mix of roads and public transport at affordable prices, as opposed to Labour populist dishonesty or the Greens claiming that our transport problems can be solved by replacing roads with buses. At the very least, the Nats would have a defining issue to frame their campaign around. Even if they lost they would have earned respect for telling the truth and doing what they believe is right. Instead, Lee's comments about crims on the motorway haunted her to the end.

The campaign was deserted by the leadership

Does Key get it that by-elections are national campaigns? Anyone can hold the job as leader when things go well. The test of a leader is when things are not going well. Key failed. He picked Lee against the wishes of the locals, he didn't get his experienced people taking ownership of the campaign and he just wasn't there. But the unforgivable act was Key's holiday on by-election weekend. The best he could do was send Lee a text. None of his senior ministers or even his president was there. Lee was left to face the massacre alone, like a stunned possum in a car's headlights.

If this is how National copes under stress in a campaign, I hope the recession doesn't get too difficult. This by-election shows us that our Prime Minister and his Cabinet can't be counted on when things get tough.