KEY POINTS:
John Key knows how to count. He made millions being able to anticipate trends, underlying numbers and reading them correctly.
Don Brash couldn't. That's why he spent last election smashing into Maori and cannibalising the votes of his potential coalition partners - Act and United Future. Despite a healthy National vote, it left the centre-right out of power. It seems Brash didn't learn and if he had remained as leader the National Party would have lost the next election as well.
The dinner date between Key and Bill English and the Maori Party leaders last week will come as a shock to most National Party and Maori Party supporters. National's new leadership's decision to consider supporting the Maori Party's Foreshore and Seabed Private Member's Bill must have Brash supporters choking on their martinis. But this has nothing to do with that particular issue. It's about building cordial personal relationships that may lead to a future political partnership.
If you actually look at the "offer" it is simply supporting the Maori Party in having the matter considered. Key has been careful to tell the Maori Party National will not support the bill becoming law. Therefore I can assure old die-hard right-wingers that this isn't about a change of principle. It's merely a clever strategy by Key to build his electoral options after the next election.
National has consistently out-polled Labour this year. Key knows this has created a perception National is well poised to become the next government. Close examination shows nothing of the sort and that's why National is in big suck-up mode with the Maori Party.
Brash and his advisers never got it. But Key understands the numbers and English has the experience to know that without building a bridge with the Maori Party, National has no chance of becoming the Government. They know the Maori Party is the key to victory. Mind the pun.
When the polls are reported, they focus on the percentage of support each party gains. We get only superficial analysis focusing on the movement between National and Labour. In the most recent Herald-DigiPoll survey, the headlines focused on how National had increased its support over Labour since Key became leader. In the October survey, the headline was about Labour slumping behind National by 7.7 per cent. The poll before that concentrated on the rapid rise of National to surpass Labour by 5.5 per cent. The impression is made that Labour is dog tucker. But that isn't true.
Any party leader or strategist with any experience knows you analyse polls to see how many seats each potential governing bloc will get - not just individual parties. Group National, Act and United Future likely seats together, and the likely Labour, Greens and Progressive seats together. The two legitimate independent parties - New Zealand First and the Maori Party - should be considered separately.
New Zealand First consistently poll under 3 per cent and do not have a Parliamentary seat. Winston Peters resides in Auckland and there isn't much activity trying to win back Tauranga. Any strategist would have to assume New Zealand First will not make the 5 per cent threshold or win a seat at the next election which means they will be out.
Current commentary does not take into account that Jim Anderton (Progressive), Peter Dunne (United Future) and Rodney Hide (Act), are likely to win their seats again, and their parties rarely poll over 1 per cent.
Equally, whilst the Maori Party polls under 5 per cent, we should assume it will keep its current four seats and possibly win others. Because these small parties will win electorates, sometimes Parliament will have extra seats. The December Herald-DigiPoll survey suggests there will be two extra, taking Parliament to 122 seats. This is important to know when you work out the power blocs.
So what does all this mean and why has it got anything to do with Key dining with his new Maori friends?
Based on that poll, the seats would be divided thus: Labour-Green-Progressive (centre-left bloc) would win 60 seats (51-8-1 respectively); National-Act-United Future (centre-right) 58 seats (56-1-1). That makes just two votes between the two potential government blocs.
New Zealand First on this poll would be out of Parliament, making the determining factor the Maori Party. With its four seats, the Maori Party will decide whether Helen Clark or Key is the next Prime Minister.
This isn't a one-off result, it is the consistent underlying pattern in just about every poll taken since the last election. For example, the October Herald-DigiPoll survey has the centre-left with 56 seats and the centre-right 59. The Maori Party polled at five seats. The September Herald-DigiPoll survey showed the centre-left and the centre-right block each with 58 seats. The Maori Party had five seats. You get the picture.
Any party that understands these polls will know exactly what their political strategy is.
Key and English have worked this out and have decided to get some new best friends. The reason for the dinner has nothing to do with policy but everything to do positioning.
I suggest Labour send a dinner invitation to the Maori Party quick.
